13 Comments

  1. Cameron

    The passes defense to interceptions ratio in college football is about 33%. Meaning that 1 out of every 4 times a defender gets his hand on the ball, it results in an interception.

    Oklahoma’s ratio last year was about 28%, which isn’t ideal (1 out of 4.5). But the ratio isn’t the main issue. Rather, it’s the Sooner’s failure to their hands on the ball on passing plays generally.

    Not sure if Oklahoma is actually going to address the issue, but according to the MacIntyre school of defensive back play, you gotta get your head turned around and hand up the moment the receiver begins to lift his arms. There’s a risk in giving up your current position in doing so, but one he believes his defensive backs should take. Might not be the worst practice for the Sooners to take up.

    • ianaboyd

      That’s a great stat and an interesting thought.

      Traditionally OU has been a team that got a lot of interceptions because they were really good at jumping routes based off film study and a willingness to take chances and attack tendency.

      Looks like the problem last year might have been as simple as:

      -Jordan Thomas failed to catch hardly any of the balls he got his hands on.

      -Ahmad Thomas lacked football IQ or athleticism to break on the ball effectively.

      -OU started a bunch of inexperienced and unskilled CBs opposite Thomas.

      • Cameron

        1) Yeah, the turnover stats are important to keep in mind.

        Fumbles: Forcing fumbles is a skill. Holding on to the ball is a skill. Recovery of a fumble is a 50-50 proposition for either team. So it can be sort of random in an individual game (e.g., one team recovering all 4 fumbles), but the general skills tend to bear out over the course of a season.

        Interceptions: Getting your hands on the ball is a skill. Throwing where defenders cannot get to it is a skill. But 1 in 4 times a defender gets his hands on the ball, its an interception. Again, can be a little random in individual games, but evens out over an entire season.

        2) That may be all it was for the Sooners. But if Colorado can get good at it with the guys they recruit, maybe Oklahoma should at least take a look into it.

        • ianaboyd

          Colorado turned 3 guys into NFL DBs last year and will probably turn a few more into NFL DBs in future years.

          I think it might prove challenging for the Stoops brothers and Cook to learn Mac’s process at this stage. I assume it’s a detailed process and relates to how they teach on the field, in drills, and in the film room.

          At any rate, I agree that Colorado is really good at teaching DBs, I just question whether OU has the means or motive to mimic their style.

      • jobhr

        All of these explanations are correct, Ian.

        Opposite J Thomas at CB in 2017, OU’s got J Parker with an extra year of experience vs Motley, who’s been the revelation of the Spring. Either would be better than the options going into 2016.

        At safety opposite S Parker, OU’s got three players:
        – Will Johnson, who was miscast last year, but has played nickel effectively in the past.
        – Houghton, who has upper level athleticism, but hasn’t shown commitment and abandon
        – Sunderland, who has great athleticism, but no experience

        OU’s DB coaching was shockingly bad during the early part of the decade. The Jim Leavitt-Bob Stoops connection is strong. Therefore, IF the Sooners wanted to learn the techniques that led to the Buffs success, it should be possible.

        • ianaboyd

          That’s assuming though that Leavitt picked up on that technique while coaching the linebackers and coordinating the scheme. He might have but we don’t know for sure.

          But Leavitt is probably holding out for the K-State head coaching job anyways though.

  2. Davey OBrien

    Wouldn’t a ratio of 1 out of 4 convert to 25% and a ratio of 1 out of 3 convert to 33%.

    Not a math major, but I am pretty sure that is the conversions.

    • Cameron

      No. You’re confusing ratios and rates.

      If you have 3 passes defenses for every 1 interception, that’s a ratio of 33%.

      If you divide the number of interceptions by the number of time a defender got his hands on a pass (passes defensed plus interceptions), then you get a rate of 25%.

      They are two distinct numbers.

      • jobhr

        Sorry, I was a math major. This should be expressed as a ratio. The ratio should be defined as

        int ratio: ints/pass defended + ints

        The only way Cameron is right is a situation where an interception isn’t counted as a defended pass, which would be ridiculous. Davey’s right, as usual.

      • Davey OBrien

        There is no way someone touching the ball 1 out of every 4 times is 33% of the time which is what you wrote in your first reply and what I referred to in my first post.

        if you touch a ball 1 out of 4 times that is 25% unless math has changed since I went to school.

        • ianaboyd

          I think Cameron is saying that INTs count as “passes defended” which they are by some metrics. Passes defended meaning a distinct stat from “pass break-ups” which wouldn’t include interceptions.

          So three passes defended and one interception would be 1/3, 33%, etc. I have that right, Cam?

          • Cameron

            Yes, that’s what I was trying to say. Probably should have defined my terms before giving that explanation.

  3. Davey OBrien

    Ian –

    “I think Cameron is saying that INTs count as “passes defended” which they are by some metrics. Passes defended meaning a distinct stat from “pass break-ups” which wouldn’t include interceptions.

    So three passes defended and one interception would be 1/3, 33%, etc. I have that right, Cam?”

    Cameron-

    “The passes defense to interceptions ratio in college football is about 33%. Meaning that 1 out of every 4 times a defender gets his hand on the ball, it results in an interception. ”

    “No. You’re confusing ratios and rates.

    If you have 3 passes defenses for every 1 interception, that’s a ratio of 33%.

    If you divide the number of interceptions by the number of time a defender got his hands on a pass (passes defensed plus interceptions), then you get a rate of 25%. ”

    Yeah, obvious what he is trying to say since he seems to disagree with himself. Math is fundamental or so they say.

    Ian, good luck with the site.

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