4 Comments

  1. System Poster

    On Benny Wiley, there was some reality weight loss type show a year or two ago featuring different trainers assigned to different contestants. Wiley was one of the trainers and his training techniques seemed retrograde, to say the least. I’m not a strength expert, but the focus on isolation lifts and cardio seemed like it was straight out of the 90’s while other trainers were using more modern high intensity workouts and compound lifts. Will he train his football players the same way? I doubt it, but who knows. Tech folks have fond memories of Wiley and those were some pretty tough teams from a culture perspective, finesse offense reputation not withstanding.

    • ianaboyd

      Yeah, his Tech teams didn’t seem to have issues but at Texas things went really badly and the report I got on his time there matched what you observed on that show.

      So the concern with him is two-fold: 1) That he’s not going to max out their athletes physically the way he should and 2) that he lacks the kind of attitude that will produce a hard-nosed team.

  2. Julian Redbull

    “(Glenn) Spencer’s favorite metrics of turnover margin, red zone D” are NOT SUSTAINABLE YEAR TO YEAR, random noise.

    http://www.espn.in/nfl/story/_/page/BarnwellNFLPreview160729/nfl-best-worst-red-zone-means-2016-season

    “defenses, which appear to be even more random from year to year than offenses — correlations across the board are lower. Just 30.8 percent of a team’s points allowed rank can be explained by its rank in points allowed per red zone trip. And 7.4 percent of a team’s points allowed rank is explained by its rank last year. The red zone year-on-year comparison accounts for just 2.4 percent of performance. It’s almost entirely random.” – Bill Barnwell

    “we arrive at a whopping conclusion that just over half of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck” – Julian Ryan

    http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/general/79-examining-luck-in-nfl-turnovers

    3rd down % a good stat? No… not according to Brian Burke or anyone that has done research into predictive analytics…
    http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/01/is-3rd-down-conversion-percentage-good.html

    But Spencer the non-analytics guy thinks 3rd down % is a good stat… first down is more predictive…
    http://newsok.com/article/5565321?slideout=1

    • ianaboyd

      We’ve had this debate before, I think a lot of that analysis is wrong for reasons I explained previously.

      Spencer’s 2017 D wasn’t very effective, I don’t think it was due to Spencer’s understanding of what metrics matter but their failures to teach and install efficiently.

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