42 Comments

  1. Russ

    My only argument is on one of your points about Jalen Hurts. While I don’t think he will live up to the ridiculous standards set by Baker and Kyler, I think if you are judging by 3.7 ypa in playoff games your expectations are too low. Playoff games feature teams that are playoff worthy, which is not the same as the Big 12 slate of defenses.

    • ianaboyd

      That’s a fine point, but what does 3.7 ypa against Washington, Georgia, or Clemson come to when facing TCU, Iowa State, or Texas? Maybe better than that, but it’s such an abysmal number that you have to wonder if he’ll be able to carry them.

      And with their problems on D, they probably need the QB to carry them.

          • Boomsoon

            Thought we were talking Hurts YPC in playoffs. And disregarding his 5.2 career avg and talking up 3.7 ypc in playoff games.

          • ianaboyd

            YPA, not YPC. 3.7 ypc in the playoffs would be nothing to sniff at, yardage on the ground comes tough at that level.

            But 3.7 ypa is embarrassing and that’s why they pulled him for Tagovailoa.

        • System Poster

          Going to confess that I ALSO thought you were talking about YPC and not YPA. 3.7 YPA is so bad, I guess my brain couldn’t process it.

          • Clayton Davis

            He did pretty well against Georgia in relief in the title game, with 7/9 passing for 82 yards and an average of 7.786 YPP running/passing. That’s not Kyler Murray/Tua Tagovailoa numbers, but Georgia had bottled up Tua pretty well before then.

          • ianaboyd

            I watched that a couple of times. Georgia didn’t contain him or have a good gameplan for him.

          • ianaboyd

            Also, Bama had really been pounding them the whole game, Tag just kept screwing it up. Foreshadowed the Clemson game, really.

  2. Sidney Steel

    This article wasn’t too full of texas homer-ism, I’ll give it a solid B+ or A-, plus it’s a preseason assessment of the future production of teams/players. Even if it was all pro-OU it could potentially be bogus by the time the season is over!

  3. TheTruthof2019

    It isn’t really homerism when you see the obvious flaws with Oklahoma.
    Hurts behind last year’s OL or 2017’s you could see Hurts coming close to putting up those numbers.
    Hurts is going to have the pressure to score a lot more often than he ever had with Alabama even if OU’s D dramatically improves.

    All the weapons around a QB are important if the QB can get them the ball. What will probably happen is that Hurts misses the big time throws and the offense is less explosive.
    Truthfully think that helps Oklahoma on D because they don’t have the depth to score as fast as they do on offense.
    Best thing for OU is to become a lot more efficient on offense with time consuming drives and play average to above average Defense.

    Just think in a game like that Sam Ehlinger is better because he is familiar with the offense.
    Both Mayfield and Murray had time to learn the offense at Oklahoma. Hurts will have spring and fall practices.

    • ianaboyd

      “Hurts is going to have the pressure to score a lot more often than he ever had with Alabama even if OU’s D dramatically improves.”
      Underrated point. Dude was well programmed by Saban to never turn the ball over, they’d take sacks, throwaways, or no-gain scrambles all day because they weren’t afraid to punt and play D. Not the case in Oklahoma.

      “Just think in a game like that Sam Ehlinger is better because he is familiar with the offense.
      Both Mayfield and Murray had time to learn the offense at Oklahoma. Hurts will have spring and fall practices.”
      Also a good point. And Murray and Mayfield ran some solid spread Os in HS with a ton of experience in them, Hurts didn’t throw the ball around as much, although he has now had a lot of experience in big time college games.

      When it comes down to precise decision-making in big moments, for sure you give Mayfield and Ehlinger the edge over Hurts. Maybe Murray as well but Murray was also just impossible in big moments because he could buy himself enough time to make something happen and had the arm to hit targets way downfield if they could get open. I’ve never seen someone so small be so physically overpowering before.

  4. Rollie

    Re: TCU QB – Even if Baldwin gets the waiver he won’t take a practice rep until Sept due to surgery he had last month. So he’s likely 2020 option at best. Collins should be ready but it’s going to be the Delton show to start :/

        • Rollie

          Not even the coaches think that (for 2019)- unless he magically heals from dropfoot in a month. Fans are delusional or uninformed if they think he’s going to be ready. There is no time table.

          • Philly Frog

            That’s not what I hear from the training staff.

            He may never regain all his speed, but he’s 90% minimum.

            He may have other issues like with accuracy/consistency, but the mobility is there.

          • ianaboyd

            So he just needs to get used to throwing a football while people try to kill him and then learn a new system while competing for reps and coaching with a half dozen other dudes and he’s good to go.

          • System Poster

            I mean, he played last year in the bowl game. He’s a QB, not a linebacker or receiver or something. He could probably be okay without having to run too much.

          • Philly Frog

            Ian:

            Rogers was QB1 at the ‘Spring Scrimmage’ last Spring for whatever it’s worth. It was his second spring in Fort Worth under Cumbie, albeit his first in pads. I have no idea what you mean by “…learn a new system”.

            https://twitter.com/TCU_Rivals/status/1114298262205476864

            Rogers may well not be the guy this fall, but (again) based on what I’ve heard it won’t be because he’s a gimp.

          • ianaboyd

            How much has he been able to take reps in the offense? Studying it helps but getting reps is huge. And when he’s doing that while also rehabbing a leg he couldn’t feel that’s no small matter.

          • Philly Frog

            He was full-release for this past spring, and wound up QB1 over Duggan for the final public scrimmage.

            The only other guy in the room with more snaps in this offense is Collins. He may be more of a gimp than Rogers at this point (that’s pure speculation, given how well they hide injury information).

            Bottom line, the staff wanted as much depth going into this year as they could get their hands on. Recency effect, etc. Ian, you probably missed your best chance at playing D-1 QB this fall. 😉

  5. Travis

    Baylor finished 5th in the standings last year. For them to finish 7th when they bring so much back would be very surprising.

    The past 4 years the 7th place team had 3 conference wins. I don’t foresee them getting worse after 4 conference wins last year.

    • ianaboyd

      The middle tier of the Big 12 isn’t as clear as that analysis would make out. Going 3-6 in conference rather than 4-5 doesn’t necessarily signify some major slip.

      What makes Baylor stand out above anyone I ranked ahead of them?

  6. Jay

    I can’t see Baylor finishing 7th but I also wouldn’t be shocked at all if TCU, OkSt, and ISU all have stellar years, so I can see how it could shake out that way. The only issue I have is putting Tech over Baylor. Rhule/Snow system getting another year to click in, plus a top 3-4 QB in the conference getting his 3rd yr of consistent play. I know you really don’t like Baylor’s D, but I’m gonna give a pretty big edge to Rhule having something figured out on how to defend the B12, than Wells coming in on his 1st year with players he didn’t recruit. Plus the game is in Waco. Baylor likely Ws vs Kansas, WVU, KSt, & Tech is prolly gonna put BU at worst, 6th.

    • ianaboyd

      That’s a solid case.

      I wouldn’t have thought this before the last couple of years but I trust Wells and his defensive staff over Rhule/Snow though. The Baylor guys dismantled the structure of something that was working to rebuild and they haven’t yet managed to piece the new program together.

      Wells has a structure that’s more proven against the spread and he can arrive there with less violence to what Tech had already been aiming at. If you look at what Gibbs left behind there’s actually some defensive talent on hand that fits the vision.

      Finally, tech was better last year. Injuries at QB knocked them a peg below Baylor in the outcome but they were the stronger squad overall.

    • System Poster

      Tech probably beats Baylor (and KSU) if they have ANY healthy scholarship QB. Probably beat OU with a healthy Bowman for the whole game and maybe beat UT as well (almost beat them with a third stringer and would have pretty handily if not for three of the all time dumbest red zone turnovers). Tech was a top 25 team last year when healthy. Assuming health on offense and ANY improvement on defense, we likely are again this year.

      Of course, a big drop off on defense without Dakota Allen and with big holes at NT and safety could mean we only win 4 games. And maybe Kingsbury actually was an offensive genius and the new guy, Yost, won’t be able to maintain the same level of offensive prowess.

  7. System Poster

    Ian, do you have any insight (or even care because I assume Tech is far from your top concern) on what Tech is planning on doing at NT? Joseph Wallace was obviously the presumptive starter but he’s off the team. I like the idea of Broderick Washington there but have some questions about whether he’s athletic enough to make up for his lack of size for that position. If we can’t find someone to hold the fort down at NT, it might not matter how good our linebackers are, unfortunately.

    • ianaboyd

      Didn’t Broderick play there some last year? I’d have to refer to notes but I thought DL play was solid last year, except against Texas who definitely pushed them around some.

      • System Poster

        I’m sure he got some snaps there, but he was primarily playing one of the 4i DE spots. The NT spot was a rotation of Joe Wallace (who led the returning group of Big 12 DL in run stops per PFF), Preston Gordon, a grad transfer from Rice, and Nick McCann. Only McCann will be here next year, unfortunately.

        • ianaboyd

          Could go okay, I don’t know what they did last year but I bet this year they use the “lag” technique a lot which is friendly to the nose. Your gap is the one behind where the center is moving.

        • Philly Frog

          System:

          I’m way too lazy to look it up, but I thought you guys signed a qualified JUCO guy last January at DT?

          He was a guy that Fitch was chasing for the Frogs?

          • System Poster

            Unless I’m forgetting someone, the only non-high school DT we’ve brought in the last couple of years was a grad transfer out of rice, but he was a senior last year.

  8. Will

    I have to say, I’m surprised at how down you are on WVU. Sure, they lost two of their 4 best returning players a couple months ago. But Holgo left a lot of talent behind at receiver and safety. The defense returns plenty of experience, even with the recent losses and Holgo had two of his best recruiting classes right before he left. I think the talent on campus easily outpaces K-state and is probably better than some other teams you’ve got in the bottom half of the conference.

    Brown also looks like a better fit at WVU than any of the other new coaches. You don’t seem to like him but he’s the only new young guy with a few notable P5 scalps on his belt and he’s taking on a program that has consistently placed in the top half of the conference, unlike the other two.

    I’ll be happy with WVU if they get to a bowl. Probably won’t happen with the schedule. But I don’t see a team that is merely better than Kansas in the grand scheme of the conference. Looks a lot more like the other squads in the bottom half of the conference. I guess we will know how the transition has gone pretty quickly once the season starts with JMU, Mizzou and N.C. State to start.

    • ianaboyd

      I like brown fine I just think he’s up against it. The top WRs and Ss waiting for their turns are leaving and they’re overhauling a thing or two on both sides of the ball.

      It’s really hard to stand out in this league with coaching because so many of the coaches are excellent. Everyone has comparable talent after Texas and Oklahoma and things often hinge on who runs the most complete program or who is in a boom cycle at QB. Brown may build a complete program but that takes time and they aren’t in an up cycle with their roster. That was last year.

      • Jim M

        Hard to disagree with so many unknowns and the overall improvement of the 2nd/3rd tier teams. And that schedule..

        That said-
        I’m nervous for JMU, then Missouri/NC St. It’s a tough way to open..
        The Texas game, is in Motown for homecoming- With Texas/OU the following week. It’s hard to win in Morgantown.
        An upset there could be the bright spot in a rebuilding year.

        I also think that Les Miles could steal 1-2 big 12 games.
        And after seeing ISU completely dismantle WVU last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished at the top.

        • ianaboyd

          WVU is just up against it with the shape of the roster and the way the schedule shakes out. Miles’ big problem will be figuring out how to create space for Pooka Williams when everyone knows that job one is to keep him under wraps.

          Letting Jax “the destroyer” Dineen go to K-State was a huge mistake.

    • ianaboyd

      Remember when the Aggies joined the SEC and chose that moment to finally embrace Big 12 offense, had immediate success, then tanked for non-schematic reasons?

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