Who’s making the playoffs in 2019? Pt. I, scanning the midwest

Who’s making the playoffs in 2019?

I’ve been pretty bad at prognosticating this over the years. Usually I’m pretty dialed in on a handful of potential teams. Last year I nixed Ohio State amidst concerns over program distractions but I elevated Michigan and committed the error for the second consecutive year of overlooking problems at offensive tackle for a team that otherwise looked dangerous in the passing game (in 2017 I overlooked those issues for USC).

For 2018 I chose:

Georgia despite being on the record previously guessing that they’d take a step back after losing a ton of really good seniors before rebounding in 2019. Michigan because of defense and the infusion of Shea Patterson into an improving offense. Notre Dame because their D was loaded and I figured they’d unleash the O eventually once they turned things over to Ian Book, and then Washington because their program is strong, was stocked with senior leaders, and the Pac-12 wasn’t looking too tough. I knew Alabama was a good bet for the playoffs but because I had them losing to Georgia in the SEC title game I figured that would nix them. Obviously I picked the wrong SEC horse.

Here’s my thinking for 2019, I’m going to go through some of the main teams and try to tick through a more through checklist to make a more well rounded evaluation.

Here’s the checklist:

Infrastructure check

Does this team have offensive tackles and an overall line that won’t limit them when they face teams with NFL players on the DL? If you can’t win battles in isolation in the trenches, either protecting your QB or blocking for your RB, then that’s going to be trouble.

How is the defense up the middle? Are there proven veterans at the nose, linebacker, and safety that will allow the team to have flexible gameplans and match up against great offenses without getting blown away?

Championship gear

Does this team have elite facets or game changing players that can allow them to overpower even the best opponents? For instance, the 2018 Alabama Crimson Tide were impossible to handle up the middle of their defense. The 2019 Clemson Tigers ended up being able to fling the ball around on anyone with Trevor Lawrence and had an all-NFL DL.

Schedule

Even good or great teams can be derailed by an unfavorable scheduling draw. Schedule is a regular reason that top 25 caliber SEC teams go 8-5.

Ohio State

Infrastructure check

They have some veterans inside on the OL and a LT, then 3-year guys plugging in at the positions where starters are departing. The middle of the defense is set with talented upperclassmen at DT, LB, and Saf. Assuming effective coaching this team figures to have plenty of players coming up the pipeline that can execute the plan.

Championship gear?

The Buckeyes have a ton of overall talent, they may start six or more former 5-star players and have a few areas of particular lethality. One is at DE where Jonathan Cooper and Chase Young return, another is the backfield where they’ll pair JK Dobbins with Justin Fields behind what will likely be another good Buckeye OL.

They figure to have a nice inside-out combo they can work with Fields running shotgun option with Dobbins and then hitting perimeter screens to speed or throwing deep and outside on play-action. He can hit some stuff outside of the hash marks, it should make for a potent offense.

Schedule?

The non-conference slate is sneaky good with Lane Kiffin’s FAU and Luke Fickell’s Cincinnati coming to Columbus early. The B1G schedule gives them @Nebraska, Wisconsin, and @Northwestern from the West division and then keeps them home against Michigan State but takes them on the road @Michigan and @Penn State.

Gut call

I don’t trust Fields’ decision-making in big games, this rebuilt defense that sucked a year ago, and I think this schedule has too many traps. This feels like 10-2, maybe B1G champions but out of the playoff picture kind of season.

Michigan

Infrastructure check

The Wolverines have Shea Patterson back at QB and now in a RPO offense that should better suit his strengths and he’s backed up by Dylan McCaffrey who may already be his superior. The trick with the Wolverines is at OT, where they were abused last year against ND, tOSU, and Florida a year ago and where they return the 6-3/290 pound John Runyan at LT while looking to plug in one of two sophomores at RT. If this team had just one all-conference caliber tackle you’d feel a lot better about their chances.

The defense was gutted along the defensive line by graduation/NFL departures and is going to be sorta green up the middle overall. There’s a lot of questions here.

Championship gear?

Potentially the run game if the RPO evolution works. The Wolverine interior OL is as overpowering and impressive as the OTs are limited and questionable. It’s the Big 10 though…

Schedule?

Brutal. They get @Wisconsin and @Penn State in there, take on Army early, draw Iowa from the West division, play Notre Dame in the middle of the B1G slate (between road trips vs Penn State and Maryland) and then they still have Michigan State and Ohio State albeit at home. Just too many tough teams for a squad with this many question marks.

Gut call

Not gonna happen.

Penn State

Infrastructure check

Trace McSorley is gone and Tommy Stevens transferred to go play with Joe Moorhead again at Mississippi State. The OL looks okay and the interior of the defense could be incredible, although there’s a lot of questions about James Franklin’s ability to get the most from his teams. The man is 23-16 without Moorhead and 22-5 with him.

Championship gear?

It’d be the defense, that returns star linebackers Cam Brown and Micah Parsons, both of whom could blossom into superstars this season. It’s also possible that new QB Sean Clifford and some of the talented skill players that Franklin stockpiled who are coming up now will unleash something unexpected on teams.

Schedule?

Pretty navigable in terms of not drawing a ton of power teams, although they have road trips against Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Minnesota. That’s rough.

Gut call

I’ve been selling James Franklin stock for a little while now.

Nebraska

Infrastructure check

Expectations are stupid high for Scott Frost’s Nebraska, but they do have some positive features to this team. The OL returns both tackles even if the interior doesn’t look like a title belt group and they have a lot of quality TEs on campus. The middle of the defense has pieces and some players that have proven some things in B1G games. Adrian Martinez returns as a sophomore starter and he’s the straw that stirs the drink here.

Championship gear?

Adrian Martinez running Scott Frost’s spread-option is really, truly dangerous and could give Nebraska a big edge in every game.

Schedule?

The B1G West is really good this year, kinda like the Big 12 back when Texas was in the wilderness and Oklahoma wasn’t clicking on all cylinders. Lots of really strong teams but not a lot of title contenders. Their Big 10 East draw was Ohio State at home, @Maryland, and Indiana. That’s really favorable.

Gut call

I think this team may shock Ohio State and make a big breakthrough for Frost but not enough of one to make the playoffs.

Michigan State

Infrastructure check

Mark Dantonio shuffled his staff after last year’s embarrassing results, but really the injury bug just sunk the Spartan formula. That formula, which is truly amazing to behold, is to be a bland, power-O offense on standard downs and then a clever, pro-style, spread passing attack on passing downs. That combination often keeps the chains moving, eats up clock, and helps the Spartans to turn games into ball-control slogs where they are necessarily at advantage.

They had to shuffle their OL all season, QB Brian Lewerke was injured, and the D was as good as most we’ve seen from Lansing. Now Lewerke and the OL are all back and healthy, and the defense returns nine starters. They have all the pieces they normally have when they cause problems, including cornerbacks that can hold up and make their press-quarters schemes work.

Championship gear

This team doesn’t ever really have a championship gear other than perhaps the defense or maybe Connor Cook who was particularly good at executing their empty formation passing game to bail them out on third and long. It’s really more about whether you have a championship gear that rescue your squad from getting into an ugly shoving match with Dantonio’s hoplites.

Schedule?

The Spartans get a rematch with Arizona State, have road trips out west to face Wisconsin and Northwestern, and get both Ohio State and Michigan on the road while taking on Penn State in Lansing. Not the best slate for a team that relies on gritting out tough, close wins in those sorts of games.

Gut call

Even if this team rebounds from last year and reaches a form similar to what they did earlier this decade when they were winning titles I think the rest of the league has gotten too good for their formula to generate 10+ wins anymore. There’s more spread around also, which gives their defense problems and wrecks their “let’s make this a first to 20!” method.

Wisconsin

Infrastructure check

Much like the Longhorns, the Badgers have really good looking returning starters at LT and C, and then an assortment of up and coming massive locals fitting in around them. Should go okay. QB is the question mark, it really seems like they might actually go with true freshman Graham Mertz and in any event probably use more shotgun formations with the option or RPO entering into the equation to make sure RB Jonathan Taylor gets the 250 or so touches he’s accustomed to getting.

Last year was the first time in a while that Wisconsin’s infrastructure on D didn’t hold up due to some injuries along the DL and at safety. Desoto, TX LB Chris Orr will lead an otherwise young ILB group but DL and OLB are healthy and reloaded now and DB looks normal.

Championship gear?

The defense could be very good. B1G title good? Playoff good? I dunno, maybe. They weren’t close to either a year ago but things are healthier now. The offensive identity isn’t totally clear but if they can blend their dangerous spread sets featuring flex TE Jake Ferguson with their typical power run game then that’s concerning for opponents. What you’d be betting on here is Graham Mertz being the next big time freshman QB thanks to a supporting cast that overwhelms opponents as he gets his feet wet.

Schedule?

Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State from the East division with the Buckeye game taking them on the road. Ouch. Add that to a tougher than normal West division that will make the Badgers finish with @Nebraska, Purdue, and then @Minnesota to end the year while attempting (potentially) to seal up the division crown.

Gut call

This team has more upside than most of the rest of the league if things broke positively with Mertz but there’s too many question marks and too many tough games. I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if they were 8-5 and lost ground in the West this year or if they were 10-2 and back in the B10 title game.

Notre Dame

Infrastructure check

Ian Book and four starters on the offensive line are back. The DL should be good due to the DE tandem but the DTs are green, the Te’Von Coney/Drue Tranquill LB tandem is gone, and then the safeties are back and look excellent. It’s a mixed bag here overall but mostly positive, the big question is at ILB where the Irish probably need Asmar Bilal (converted nickel LB) to translate well.

Championship gear?

Still a lot of talent at the skill positions and Ian Book is pretty experienced in getting them the ball. The defense is also pretty skilled on the edge with Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem at DE and then four returning starters on the secondary. Lots of athleticism across the team that could overmatch some opponents if the infrastructure isn’t overwhelmed like it was against Clemson.

Schedule?

@Georgia, @Michigan, and @Stanford with Virginia, Virginia Tech, and USC all visiting South Bend. This team has a pretty easy schedule otherwise so they’ll be able to focus on these big games but with their recent postseason track record you figure they need to go unbeaten (beating Georgia in particular) to get the benefit of the doubt in a close call.

Gut call

Probably not, but the Irish have a better path than the rest of the Midwest powers. That Georgia game looms as a defining contest for both programs.

Will there be a playoff team from the Midwest?

I don’t think so. There’s a lot of good teams in the Big 10 this year and really only four with the means to break out from the pack: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. Then there’s Notre Dame, who’s the best bet of the region but doesn’t look like the same veteran and powerful team that ended up drawing a shockingly easy schedule in 2018.

Could be another year with 2-3 playoff entrees from everyone’s favorite region. We’ll hit some other areas in part II.