I didn’t take in much college football over the weekend as a result of driving to Austin to visit newborn family. I did attend the Texas/Oklahoma State game though and took in a lot from that contest.
One result that really stood out on the scoreboard was Iowa State dropping 72 while their key receivers Tarique Milton and Deshaunte Jones went for a combined 242 yards and two scores off just five catches. There’s that missing explosiveness that the Cyclones have been missing.
The Texas-Oklahoma State game seemed to be the most heavily viewed and discussed by the league’s fans. I was surprised after the game to see that many seemed to have the impression from the game that Ok State was THIS close and that a smarter gameplan from Mike Gundy would have done the trick.
Taking it in live I had more or less the opposite reaction. Texas had the Cowboys beat in the trenches on both sides of the ball and the QB who was in greatest command of the action. Texas almost put the Cowboys away on two occasions, when they made it 21-13 and then forced a punt before the half and then when they pushed it to 36-23 and forced a punt with the fourth quarter running out. On both occasions the Longhorns then fumbled short punts when their returners tried to rush into traffic to secure the ball and instead dropped it. Both fumbles led to OSU touchdowns. 21-20 before the half and then 36-30 toward the end of the game.
Contrar-Ian says the glass is half empty
The TCU Horned Frogs were the big losers in week 4. Their loss to SMU was indicative of the reality that their QB play isn’t where it needs to be for everything else to come to bear.
The Frogs played solid defense and ran the ball for over 200 yards but fumbled three times, twice from QB Max Duggan who won the “tallest dwarf” competition that determined their QB battle. Mike Collins and Matthew Baldwin loom as potential saviors during the season if they can step in and avoid turnovers.
It wasn’t a season-crushing loss for the Frogs, but it was indicative that a defense/run game formula doesn’t work if you get killed in turnover margin and it’s a strategy that is already vulnerable going up against potent spread offenses within the league. Barring a dramatic rescue from another QB, it seems that the Frogs won’t have the field generalship to really compete for the B12 this season.
Baylor had similar concerns after eeking by a Rice team that Texas just made to look like a JV squad the previous weekend. The Owls run a 3-3-5 akin to Iowa State’s system and they’re really crafty about moving pieces around to confuse the reads and allocate numbers to different parts of the field.
The Bears moved the ball down the field efficiently but they turned it over a couple of times and turtled up on offense for virtually the entire second half rather than stepping on the gas. Baylor clearly had a greater command of that game than the score indicated but the fumbles and fact that Charlie Brewer got 12 carries and was the leading rusher are more worrisome.
As I noted a week ago, the Bears seem to be putting a lot on Brewer physically in this offense. The toll of his workload is similar to something you’d see in a HS offense or a dual-threat QB offense like Texas or Oklahoma State are using, although Ehlinger’s run game workload has been much less than Brewer’s despite a tougher schedule. How will Brewer hold up over the course of the season if he’s throwing 30+ times and running 10-15x a game? That was tough on Ehlinger last year and he’s a much bigger fellow than Charlie.
Speaking of injuries, the Longhorns took it on the chin and currently enter a bye week with the following DBs injured:
Back-up CB/Ni Josh Thompson
Back-up dime Demarvion Overshown
Starting safety BJ Foster
Starting safety Caden Sterns
Starting corner Jalen Green
They’ll trickle back into the lineup, except Thompson who broke a foot, after a couple of weeks. The Red River Shootout will not feature a full strength secondary from Texas though.
Contrar-Ian says the glass is half full
I thought the Pokes were further away from the Longhorns than anyone in Oklahoma seemed to think. I was very impressed with Spencer Sanders, like everyone else, but I was impressed in part because I could tell how lost he is much of the time.
I suspected this was the case when watching him in previous games trying to find where the ball belongs when he isn’t just executing a double move throw for Tylan Wallace. To their credit, Texas adapted in all the right ways from the LSU debacle and treated Oklahoma State to inverted Tampa 2 from dime with the safety on Wallace’s side playing an inside shade directly across from him. They simply weren’t letting the Cowboys have any easy reads or throws to Wallace.
Without that safety blanket, the Cowboys defaulted to running Chuba Hubbard 37 times (35 the week before!) and leaning on Sanders in the run game. Both of these guys are well above average runners at their positions so that yielded some fruit.
Sanders’ arm strength and accuracy (when he has time and surety) combined with his athleticism makes for astoundingly talented player overall. As his command of the OSU offense and ability to work through progressions improves he’ll be a force of nature.
The ‘Pokes do need to rotate in another RB though. Hubbard is clearly tough as nails in addition to being insanely fast, but no one is going to hold up getting this kind of workload and particularly not someone so lithe.
Who won week 4 in the Big 12?
Sam Ehlinger was the most obvious winner. There were a lot of things to be noticed watching Texas live, one of them was the way that Ehlinger understands how to command games by controlling the tempo and when to call his own number.
Coming out halftime, Texas stalled just past midfield on the first drive and then yielded a field goal to OSU that made it 23-21 Pokes. The next drive was a clear “okay, we need to make some plays here” moment and it was keyed by a long scramble by Ehlinger that thwarted OSU’s drop 8 scheme and then the trick play call that had Ehlinger give up the ball on a reverse before getting it back to throw a strike on the move to the TE for a score.
Also notable in this game, star receiver Collin Johnson was out with an injury and his replacement Malcolm Epps was a negative against the Cowboy cornerbacks. He didn’t command much extra attention, couldn’t get off the jam, and deflected a pass that hit him in the hands to a safety. What’s more, he played on the boundary so one of the more easily accessible targets for Ehlinger was manned by a weaker target.
Despite that, things often looked fairly easy for Texas. Ehlinger is clearly the best player in the league, which combines with a more humble defensive approach bodes well for their chances at a league title. The Sooners had a similar dynamic to their 2017 team in particular with Baker Mayfield, who notably kept them in the right plays.
Another hat tip to West Virginia, who escaped the catacombs and didn’t get locked in the cellar by Kansas when Les Miles lured them down there on Saturday.
Next week we’ll learn more about Oklahoma and Kansas State, who draw Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. We also get a major proving ground matchup in Iowa State at Baylor.
“Baylor had similar concerns after eeking by a Rice team that Texas just made to look like a JV squad the previous weekend.”
Against Rice, Texas went for 7.27 yards per play while giving up 4.92. Baylor went for 6.92 YPP while giving up 3.67. You later say that Baylor was in command of the game but turtled up in the second half (Rhule was clearly trying to see if they could run the ball against an outnumbered box–they can’t) so I’m not sure what the point of your quoted comment is.
You also say you’re concerned about the fumbles, but one was the ball slipping out of Brewer’s hands as he reared back to throw, and the other was on a hurried pitch after a bad snap. Not sure why those are causes for concerns heading into the future.
I understand the worry about Brewer’s usage in the run game (he didn’t have but one or two this past game, everything else was scrambles), but, if that’s your main cause for concern, that is definitely a glass-half-empty take for a team that clearly otherwise made huge strides.
Glass half empty was the idea, and I don’t know why those fumbles aren’t at all troubling.
Ian,
Do you think the strategy was to just try a bunch of stuff the second half of the Baylor/Rice game? I do hope that’s the case cause the Baylor offense looked really bad. The D showed up & played all 4Q. Also, of concern was how far off the corners were playing the receivers, tons of real estate. Maybe that was the plan, to beat them over the top? But Rice’s run game wasn’t that good to begin with, so this is a bit confusing tactics to me.
I haven’t watched close to really say.
“Ehlinger is clearly the best player in the league”
Lol, waiting for the OU fans to storm in here to yell at you for this take…
I don’t think Tech is going to be much of a test for OU at all. I would take the points all day in that game. While our front is solid enough to take away some of the passing game, I don’t like how our secondary matches up with their receivers. I imagine they’ll just spread it out and target Desmon Smith all day.
And even if they don’t score as many points as usual, our offense will make their defense look good, especially if, as rumored, Jackson Tyner gets the start. He’s one of the worst passers of the football I’ve ever seen, sporting a 46.5 completion percentage in three years of sporadic starts at Rice. Duffey would at least make it interesting, but apparently the coaches aren’t going with that approach.
I think coming off a bye week that Tech will have a lot cooked up for OU. Maybe it’ll all fall flat because they lack the talent but I bet they’ll give them their best shot.
Yeah, idk, watching Utah State games from last year, at least offensively, it doesn’t look like Yost does too much cooking up. Aside from the occasional reverse or throwback pass, he pretty much runs the same handful of plays, even against opponents where you would expect he would be trying to go all out.
His trick is creating matchups, which doesn’t pop if you’re not watching for it.
I feel more impressed with OSU with the way they lost to Texas.
I’m gonna say that the coaches probably did lose them this game. Their failure to adjust to the corners aggressively defending the run is IMO what cost them. The line actually held up ok against the UT front 5/6. But when you run outside zone and don’t get a hand on the corner, and don’t hold him accountable with a quick perimeter throw, and your RB has to cut inside to the help, Yeah your line looks bad.
On the flip side they got their asses handed to them in the red zone. Some of that will get cleaned up over the next month, the rest I don’t know about.
Personally I think it’s a 3 way race between Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. State’s finish depends on Sanders’ progress this season. I wouldn’t be shocked if UT and OSU met again in the CCG.
I don’t think any of the other conference foes can stand up to OSU, OU, or Texas. OU and OSU should face each other both no worse than 10-1. Just my opinion.
TCU? Bad.
Iowa State? Not sold yet offensively, but their D gives them a slight chance.
Tech? Kansas? Bad.
WVU? No way.
Kansas State and Baylor are the wildcards IMO. We’ll see more about them this week, I agree.
If corners are making tackles on outside zone then you’re getting strung out. I haven’t had a close look yet but love it seemed clear that Texas was whipping the OSU OL. Inflicted some TFLs as well.
The Texas OL unquestionably bullied the OSU front, the Cowboys tackle well from the drop 8 dime D though.
If Texas and Texas A & M played last year at full strength who would win?
Secondly do you think the Texas defense has turned the corner after Oklahoma State or will it revert to its LSU mode?
I think they had their eyes opened some and will play it safer moving forward.
Aggies have been tough on D since Elko came, last year would have been close but I think Texas handles that run game well. This year less of a contest.
I know nobody watched the game but Kansas definitely looked rejuvenated. The safeties, Lee in particular, were really physical and smart. They almost pulled off a game changing onside kick and Carter Stanley is aggressive in distributing the ball. They might win a Big 12 game, might not. But they are playing hard and have a spark that has been missing forever.
Austin Kendall is, um, not a playmaker. My hopes for 2015 Skyler Howard were way too high. Dude can’t throw a ball more than 20 yards and isn’t a confident runner. He can get into a rhythm with short passes and tempo but I think the offense’s ceiling is severely capped. DL looks good though. Seems like a decent bet to win 5 games (so 2 more), maybe 6 if Brown can spring a big upset somewhere (looking hard at Iowa State at home on the 12th for that one). Brown is playing a ton of freshman (20 on the 2 deep) and I feel good about the future.
Holgorsen left some talent I’m sure but not just a fully stocked cupboard obviously. How many years until Kendall graduates?
That’s exactly right. There is like 60-70% of a competitive Big 12 2 deep and huge, uncoverable gaps at the other spots. But his last two classes have some guys that will make some real noise in a year or two. And Cowan will be on the field for the first time for the Texas game. If the reports out of camp/practice are accurate, he will be worth watching.
Next year is his last. If he doesn’t improve significantly, it sounds like Doege will get a chance to beat him out. That may even happen during the last four games this year if WVU gets to 7 losses early.
This seems like a good place to ask since a lot of Big 12 fans who are the types that would go back and watch condensed games frequent here, but does anyone know what happened to the Big 12 posting condensed games on Youtube? They did it through week 3 and then on the Tuesday or Wednesday after week 3, they pulled them all down. Did they get moved to ESPN+ or something?
Can confirm they are not on the ESPN App, although most of the full games are. Fortunately, you can fast forward through commercials. Unfortunately, the FF/REW feature is terrible which means you have to guess where to stop.
What are your expectations for UT given the continuing depletion of its secondary in a pass happy league? Specifically, what do you see the next few games as most start coming back?
They’re starting to default to inverted Tampa 2 from dime so they’re actually in okay shape.
Below are some thoughts on Oklahoma’s defensive transition so far.
Through three games, this defense is obviously much better than 2018 and overall better than 2017 (Obo was better than any one player on this team but this team is better top-to-bottom). Advanced metrics SP+, FPI, FEI support this. OU’s average defensive rank is 52 (49, 26, 80–in 2018 they were rated 84, 104, 92, respectively).
By the eye test, they’re playing harder and the aggressive front seven scheme is creating more havoc. Grinch’s “two-turnovers = win” mantra is a results-based description of his philosophy. His goal is eliminate offensive efficiency by creating havoc. This means TFL in the run game and QB pressure in the pass game. More effort and better front seven and cornerback play has yielded fruit versus overmatched competition.
One big advantage this year is that the defensive staff has FINALLY adopted the policy of early player rotation, meaning that it is less likely that players will be worn down during games and throughout the year. OU’s been able to maximize this so far because they’ve had essentially two bye weeks already (week 2 vs FCS and week 4 bye). Coming up is relatively easy next two weeks (home vs QB-challenged Tech, short road trip to better-but-not-good KU) so OU should go to Dallas relatively rested.
On to specific spots:
OU is really worried about the three safety-ish spots (including nickel), as they are the weakest unit on the team (placekicking is just above this group). None of the three starters there have really stood out, and only one (Turner-Yell) appears worth more snaps. Fortunately, this defensive staff has recognized this and is at least trying to address it proactively by trying some other bodies there during the bye week. Tech and Kansas will be interesting tests for these moves. Hopefully, they play more bodies and can at least identify which players are better suited to specific match ups to mitigate this weakness.
The corners appear to have a competent three-player rotation with Motley, Brown, and Davis (Fr). They’re small so teams will make them get off blocks and tackle in space. This is not a perfect unit, but these guys aren’t the disaster they were last year.
Front seven play is also much better. It appears that five LBs have the trust to get on the field in non-garbage time so rotations are helping keep people fresher. Murray, White, and a couple of others have been making plays. The DL is undersized but also deeper, with five players getting reps at the two DE spots and three rotating at the ST. They’re using quickness to stunt into gaps to create negative plays versus the run and pass.
OU has yet to be challenged by a good offensive line with a motion scheme that can make hard crashing linebackers pay for missing gap fits. I imagine UT will do this and OU’s going to fail this test sometimes. If it is 2-3 times for 30 yards because the safeties were competent, OU wins. If it’s 6-7 times with a couple of 70 yard gallops, then OU’s in a shootout.
On the Texas vs OU point, I think the Longhorns have a number of ways they can attack the Sooners, it’ll be a matter of what they feel will best serve a team strategy.
Overall it sounds like the Sooners are approaching the sort of spread run-stopping competency that defines most of the good programs. Graduating from that to being able to stop good spread passing attacks is the real trick but to be reaching a higher level of defense is no small matter. Of course we’ll see what they do against some better opponents soon, their non-conference slate didn’t turn out to be particularly good.