What a week. We got a couple of really big games with consequences for the rest of the season that are a little anticlimactic but things were no less fascinating this week.
Technically Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas are all still in the running to appear in the Big 12 championship. Both Baylor and Oklahoma can clinch a place with one more win and while they face a fairly tough slate, odds are great that they will get a rematch in the Big 12 championship.
It’d be interesting to see this rematch given how that first round went last night. Baylor caught the OU defense with a right hook early and then put them on the ropes for virtually the entire first half. Meanwhile the Baylor defense was doing exactly what we expected, swarming to the run and confusing Jalen Hurts.
In the second half, the Baylor offense frankly choked the game away. OU used the halftime to adjust to the QB draw RPOs that had torched them in the first half and Baylor had a couple of misfires in the passing game, such as the Tyquan Thornton drop, that led to some 3’n’out’s. They also had a big run and promising drive quickly thwarted by a JaMycal Hasty fumble.
Oklahoma ended up with 41:18 in time of possession as they carefully and methodically pounded the Bear defense in the second half with Snyder-ball. Spreading them out only to run Jalen Hurts 27 times for 114 yards at 4.2 ypc. Baylor didn’t even do a bad job defending the Sooners but played what I think is only fair to call a well above average defensive game.
But if the QB is a 220 pound power back and they’re direct snap running the ball to him it’s hard to stop them from getting consistent gains. Kansas State won a B12 title this way with Collin Klein, the only trick is that your QB has to be an exceptionally tough dude to make this work. Hurts’ performance in this game was truly an all-timer, even with the turnover mistakes. Dude is relentless.
So how do things play out in a rematch? Can Baylor get a little healthier at QB after two more league games and mix in more passing to punish the Sooners deep? Can they repeat their performance in pass defense when CeeDee Lamb is on the field, breaking tackles and turning hitch routes and screens into explosive gains?
Additionally, how will Baylor handle that loss psychologically? I don’t think Matt Rhule will panic or get down, but how will the team respond? Will Oklahoma be in their heads? Will memories of Jalen Hurts breaking tackles on 3rd down, coming time and again behind that big OL haunt this team?
Contrar-Ian says the glass is empty
There’s sugar coating the truth about what happened in Ames, Iowa. The Cyclones finally came out ahead in a big game, despite a nearly disastrous failure to catch Texas’ last punt. Texas meanwhile, completely choked the game away and concluded their season in a fitting fashion, committing an egregiously dumb offsides penalty on a 40+ yard field goal attempt that allowed Iowa State to run out the clock and kick again from a safer distance.
Texas’ injuries and the fact that Iowa State was -7 for this game could paint a clear picture of the Longhorns losing a tough game to a good team. However, within the context of the whole season it was a catastrophic defeat that put the bow on a failure of a season. With the best QB in the Big 12 and the best QB Texas has had this decade, the Longhorns are about to go 8-4 at best and almost certainly miss the Big 12 title game.
This was a season where Oklahoma had to overhaul their offense to get by without a great passer while retooling their defense. A season where most of the league was starting over at QB. Next season will feature Spencer Rattler at the helm of a loaded Oklahoma offense and the following returning starters:
Charlie Brewer, Baylor
Pump fake Purdy, Iowa State
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State
Skylar Thompson, Kansas State
Max Duggan, TCU
Alan Bowman/Jett Duffey, Texas Tech
Jarrett Doege, West Virginia (he’ll get four games of action and then no more to preserve the redshirt, so if they get to bowl eligibility someone else will have to take the snaps).
Essentially everyone but Carter Stanley and Jalen Hurts.
Texas also only had two games out of the state of Texas in 2019 and a pretty favorable scheduling draw overall. All squandered by unsound defense, injuries, horrendous and weekly special teams gaffes, and ultimately stagnant offense. The loss at Iowa State also included a series where Texas, up 21-20, got the ball on their own 15 and proceeded to run a pair of obvious zone dives from 12 personnel to try and chew up clock with 4:01 left in the fourth quarter. The Cyclones had been whipping the Texas run game and iffy TEs all game and easily stuffed these two runs, then broke up the obvious tunnel screen on third down and Texas had to punt the ball back to them from their own 5.
It was a spectacular choke job from Herman that came after two long TD drives engineered by putting Sam Ehlinger in the spread and letting him run round and make plays. The ‘Horns almost got lucky when Iowa State didn’t field the punt but allowed it to bounce to their own 18 yard line, but PFPurdy made a few throws and Texas gifted them a few extra yards here and there with penalties. The offsides penalty was also unbelievably dumb by Texas. There was still 2:16 on the clock, so either the Cyclones were going to go up 23-21 and give the ball back to Texas with a chance for another drive or they were going to miss the field goal and Texas could probably chew up the rest of the clock.
Remarkably, after a fantastic year two and a second year of one of the better Texas QBs I’ve seen, Herman will be facing the need to overhaul his staff before 2020 and produce results in what could be the toughest Big 12 season since 2008. The 2019 season was one to build margin and pad the resume with a Big 12 title, now things are going to heat up for Herman.
Who won week 12 in the Big 12?
Outside of the big games with conference title stakes, there were some other developments around the league. Somehow I was unaware that West Virginia had a Bowling Green transfer QB on the roster redshirting in order to take over for 2020 and 2021 named Jarrett Doege. When he started to get into the action late in the year I assumed he was a freshman they were getting acclimated, but he was actually a 2660-yard passer for the 2018 Falcons.
I knew the Mountaineers would trip up someone this year in the Big 12, Neal Brown seems the real deal, and it turned out to be the Wildcats. Here’s Doege beating the “Cats” on a very well thrown slot fade:
You may recall Seth Doege, who played for Neal Brown at Texas Tech back in the early part of the decade. That’s Jarrett’s older bro. This guy can execute the Neal Brown Air Raid at a much higher level then can Austin Kendall and they’ll be trouble next season.
TCU and Oklahoma State also had nice wins, the Frogs are a victory away from bowl eligibility. Technically the Cowboys can still make the Big 12 title game. Here are the scenarios where we don’t get a Baylor-OU rematch.
Scenario 1: Texas beats Baylor and so does Kansas. The Bears are 6-3 in B12 play and Texas beats Tech to also finish 6-3 with a tiebreaker over Baylor from a head2head win.
Scenario 2: TCU beats Oklahoma and then so does Oklahoma State. The Cowboys finish 6-3 with a tie-breaker over the Sooners.
Scenario 3: Both of the above happen and we get some kind of convoluted mess with as many as five 6-3 teams. Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. I don’t know how that would sort out, perhaps record against the top five. In which case it would go:
OU: 3-1
Baylor: 2-2
Texas: 2-2
Oklahoma St: 2-2
Iowa St: 1-3
Then there’d be a tiebreaker to sort out between Baylor, Texas, and OSU which I assume would go to Texas since they’d be 2-0 in this hypothetical.
I think the most likely scenario is that things get interesting with Baylor and/or OU dropping one more game, perhaps one more apiece, but then ultimately still finishing out as #1 and #2.
The big winner of week 12 was Jalen Hurts. 27 carries for 114 yards and his consistent scrambling and power running allowed Oklahoma to completely control the second half while squeezing the life out of Baylor. We’re going to have to dub him “Hurts, the relentless” from now on. He also hit a half dozen or so crossing routes against man coverage that converted multiple third downs for Oklahoma.
Salute to the fallen:
I think the TCU-OU game may be worth some notes later this week. I’ll be previewing Texas-Baylor over at Inside Texas, that could also be a good game that comes down to the wire.
That was almost a special night in Waco for the Bears with shades of 2011 when RG3’s big night offered the big proof of concept for their style of offense and burgeoning program. I broke down that game in my book:
But the Bears have a very good chance here to get to the B12 title game and avenge that loss.
Ian, I’m hurt! Tried to give you the heads up on Doege earlier this year!
https://sportstreatise.com/2019/09/who-won-week-4-in-the-big-12/
Guess I didn’t specify he was a MAC transfer. He wasn’t amazing, but he looked much sharper and more comfortable than Kendall ever did. With the WVU DL, that might be enough to eke out a bowl bid.
Kendall couldn’t hit that slot fade if you gave him 25 throws to get it.
Oh yeah, I just didn’t follow up to verify who you were talking about. I completely missed the story where they had a second QB transfer.
Ian,
I think on the above most likely scenario is BU winning over UT & KU for another run at OU. Tbh, the bears now know they can hang with OU who everyone thought was going to smash them. The confidence, hunger & it being a home game will give them a huge opportunity to show what they can do in their last home game.
Let’s not forget: BU is going to play for a B12 championship game in year 3 of a total rebuild. This team will be made up of those that stayed (& recruited for a completely different scheme), those that were recruited on the fly (1st yr), transfers & a couple that are playing as sophmores/red shirt freshmen. Most of those are middling 3 star recruits. Think about that for a minute. In the next 2-3 years with his recruits, including upgrades at various positions & more beef on the O-line, this team will be scary! Compare that to what OU & UT are at now with all their blue chip recruits. BU is poised to be an annual force at the B12 championship game.
That’s my story & I’m sticking to it,
Andrew
That’s the glass half full take. The half empty take is that Baylor is primed for regression next year. They played in some extremely close games with the worst teams on their schedule and were downright lucky more than a couple of times. They also had the benefit of playing am extremely soft and favorable schedule against a really down Big 12 (4 new coaches, three potential contenders fielding new QBs, favorable road/home splits). It’s also very possible to see a scenario where some of the new coaches get acclimated and start to pose problems for Baylor’s rise, QBs like Duggan and Sanders settle in, OU takes it to the next level with a more talented QB, UT figures out their defense, etc.
Yes, this is all true. Other problems for Baylor:
Seniors on defense: Bravvion Roy, James Lockhart, Jordan Williams, Blake Lynch, Jameson Houston, Henry Black, Chris Miller, Grayland Arnold. That’s 8 starters and there’s a solid chance James Lynch also leaves to get drafted. He should.
Seniors on offense: JaMycal Hasty, Denzel Mims, Sam Tecklenburg, Jake Fruhmorgen. That’s four starters, not as bad, I’d say there’s a decent chance they’re actually a lot better on offense in 2019.
The main concern is defense. Will they look more like the team that sucked on D or the team that finally put it together this year and really dominated at times? I think maybe the latter but it’s hard to be sure.
Schedule goes: Ole Miss in Houston, Kansas, Incarnate Word, La Tech, at OU, bye, at Tech, TCU, at Texas, OSU, at ISU, at WVU, K-State.
Not crazy, the obvious issues are traveling for OU, TX, ISU, and WVU. I think year to year the round robin schedule is pretty consistently rough for everyone. The bigger issue isn’t the setup but what you are noting, that they’ll be retooling their D in a year when the league is loaded at QB and lots of teams could be putting a lot together.
There was a question as to whether he would get a transfer waiver when he came over, so he was an afterthought at the time.
And even for you, 4th string QB on the 8-9th place team in the conference is a pretty deep cut. But now the former 2 star has beaten out two former 4 stars and looks like he could stick for the next two years.
Hey Ian do you think that Texas’s woes can be fixed by changing with everyone on the staff and the coordinators or do we need to fire Tom Herman before anything improves?
Hard to imagine that Herman is incapable of getting this right. People tend to go nuclear too quickly.
He’s shown a knack for culture and recruiting, just needs better staff.
Super frustrating as an OSU fan that we lost to Texas Freaking Tech and now have to rely on a massive TCU upset to compete for the big 12 title.
Doubly so because I am pretty confident our defense will give us a chance to win the game. We don’t have the defensive line Baylor has but we have some really talented guys on the back 8.. including what will probably end up being 1-2 all big 12 defenders.
TCU’s defense might (?) keep them in it, I’m not actually sure anymore after their performance against Texas Tech. Coverage busts left and right. I guess the saving grace is Max is legit. And they have some skill players.
If we’d just beat Texas Tech…sigh.
On another note, Dru Brown may be finishing out the year for OSU. And I think the offense will actually be (marginally) *better* with him at QB.
Dru Brown? Why?
Sounds like a ligament sprain in Sanders’ throwing hand. Injured it on a first half play and aggravated it in the second half, leading to him being pulled out early.
I imagine that at worst Brown is starting and Sanders is used for short yardage looks.
If you’re asking why would Brown play – Sanders went out with a hurt hand. It “doesn’t appear to be serious”…but who knows?
If you’re asking why the offense MAY be a tad better – (1st off, I don’t agree with that), but Dru throws a good ball and Sanders has shown some limitations. But, I think if Spencer’s able, we roll with him!
Long story short, Dru Brown is more experienced and the game doesn’t play as fast for him mentally. In extremely limited action against far inferior competition this has bore out to be true. His experience shows in the speed of his reads and knowing where to place the ball.
He isn’t as physically gifted but a QB who knows where to put the ball and can deliver it on time has shown over and over and over again to be far more successful over time. Will he deliver against West Virginia and OU? No idea.
Well worth paying attention to, heading into Bedlam, Ian. And it certainly sounds as if he may have had season ending surgery on a ligament tear in his throwing hand.
I dunno, I think if Brown was better Gundy would have played him. And with no Wallace that hurts a lot too.
Hey Ian,
Do you think Texas will be better than Baylor/OU next year?
In a way Herman’s teams play much better as underdogs so maybe in a tougher season they’ll actually have more chance to win the conference title
Depends on a lot of factors. How does Herman reorganize the staff? Are Ehlinger and Cosmi back?
Oklahoma is the best bet, I think they’ll be excellent next season. Baylor has a lot of questions but they won’t be terrible.
Ian,
I agree with some regression coming next year. Though, will the O-line improve enough to make up for the losses on the D-line? That’s the question. Considering how impactful D has been especially with how putrid they were the past 2 years is the story of the season.
Let’s not forget BU won’t be the only team with a potential regression/change next year:
*OU has Spencer, but will he be ready? What about their D?
*UT may have new coaches & therefore new schemes in D, how long will it take them to gel?
*KS is losing a ton of seniors & this was a good year to show a lot of progress, even with a new staff, so how much will they regress? Will they make a bowl?
*TT loses a lot of seniors on D, will that be a good thing since they weren’t that good? How long until their D gets better under a 2nd yr staff?
*KU may no longer be a total doorstop, so will other programs go after them now that they may no longer be an automatic win? If so, how will they respond? Can they respond?
*WV is an unknown & in rebuild mode, who can help? How many transfers will they need & how many years will they dip into that well? How long until CNB can get his recruiting numbers up?
I’m sure there are others, but this is all what I can think of now.
Andrew
Baylor needs to find more high-impact DL, unless Lynch comes back in which case I think they won’t have too much trouble figuring something out.
OU: Rattler has insane talent, people don’t realize what’s coming. He has Mahomes-ish ability to throw dimes from different arm slots and without a clear runway. He’s a supercarrier, with major force projection on the move. I assume their D will be as good or better, Grinch has shown he’s pretty competent.
UT: We’ll see what Herman gets up to. They have as much talent or more than anyone else in the league. In fact, they probably have more talent than Oklahoma when you factor what’s on the defensive side of their roster. They’re pretty far behind OU in terms of leveraging it on the field.
K-State: They’ll be solid. They lose a lot of starters on the OL but Klieman is replenishing the talent level of this team, infusing some speed unlike what they’ve had in the past, and two of the more promising players on their DL are both back.
TT: I don’t know about that D, they haven’t really put it together like I thought they might. My concern is that they are too pressure oriented. Offense will be better in year two.
KU: Need to find a transfer QB.
WVU: Watch out for the Mountaineers. Lotta OL back, this Jarrett Doege kid can actually execute the gameplan, and I think they get the Stills bros back on the DL. Most of the main skill talent on this team is young also.
Overall the league figures to be like this year but better. Lots of good teams and coaching staffs that can make your weaknesses seem like your identity.
I think Lunch comes back. He may be a middle to late pick & Rhule will be honest with him about his options. If Lynch stays, he’ll be the glue to the DL that Roy is.
UT by far has the most talent, it’s the development side that’s currently part of the problem. The other part is when blue chips think they’re all that & are more about individual plays than just being a supportive player. It prevents the program from being a team-first, consistent play. Which is why lower ranked kids play better as a full team, the whole is greater than sum of individual parts.
The B12 will definitely be really interesting these next 2-3 years until new identities are forged & current teams make changes to stay ahead of the new staffs, strategies & tactics.
Andrew
I’ll be honest about the UT D: they lost a ton of talent & they’ve had a lot of injuries + younger talent. Is it enough to call for Orlando’s head? Maybe, maybe not. But with the resources UT has, they will call for someone’s head regardless.
Also, to expand on the 4 & 5 star players, it’s not a 100% reality but it really depends on the culture. Some like Alabama, Clemson, Ohio, etc have it to the point where you’re a talented cog & not THE man. It seems to me that UT only gets up consistently for big games, otherwise they go through the paces. This is a culture issue, if that doesn’t improve, you can change all the coaches you want & it becomes moot. UT has always been big man in the league, but now they’re living off of prior glories & they need to realize that every year they have to earn that “We’re baaaack!” phrase, otherwise they’ll be an average, good team like so many others. Not being disrespectful, but a 7-5 or 6-6 season might as well be a dumpster fire for UT when they have the talent & resources to play for the B12 title & be a CFP seed just about every year.
Andrew