These come courtesy of BetOnline, don’t be confused by the “tournament winner” heading as these are early odds for the 2020 college football season.
BIG 12 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WINNER
Oklahoma 4/5
Texas 3/2
Oklahoma State 6/1
Iowa State 12/1
Baylor 16/1
West Virginia 16/1
Kansas State 25/1
TCU 28/1
Texas Tech 40/1
Kansas 100/1
Some scattershot notes
-Oklahoma no. 1 is a no-brainer. I don’t think they’ve assembled a national title-winning squad just yet though and I have some creeping doubts about Alex Grinch’s defenses that re-emerged down the stretch of the season and grew stronger after the 2020 recruiting class.
Lincoln Riley may build his best offense yet with Spencer Rattler over the next 2-3 years but Oklahoma’s window for fielding a uniquely dominant spread passing attack has closed and they’re going to need to make up some ground on defense to win a title. They’re also going to face tougher competition from the Big 12 in coming years, they can’t count on Texas being incompetent forever and some of these other teams are going to continue to figure some things out against Riley.
-Texas’ edge in the odds over Oklahoma State and Iowa State is probably undeserved. The argument for the Longhorns begins and ends with “senior Sam Ehlinger unleashed in a more aggressive offense allows Texas to outscore everyone every week.” That’s pretty plausible, but if Texas again fails to leverage that advantage the rest of the picture certainly isn’t anymore promising than what OSU and Iowa State are fielding.
-The Cyclones open their B12 slate with Tech at home and Kansas on the road before playing at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys open at TCU before hosting Iowa State. Much like last year when Iowa State played at Baylor early, someone is going to take a L here that hampers them badly for the rest of the year.
-I like Baylor and West Virginia as the sort of dark-horse, mid-tier teams that could potentially be standing as contenders for the no. 2 spot in the title game come November. They don’t play until late in November in Morgantown, which is a shame because it may not matter as much for either by then.
-Check out that dirt they’re dumping on Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs. Really seems like expectations nationally for TCU are more along the lines of “can they manage bowl eligibility? rather than, “watch out for another Patterson-lead comeback.”
I haven’t scouted TJ Storment and I don’t know what all Patterson has in mind for the coming season, but there are certainly some major question marks for TCU next year. The promising prognosis starts with things like, “If Storment can play tackle at a high level, Ochaun Mathis matures into the next great Frog pass-rusher, Max Duggan avoids a sophomore slump after losing his running backs and Jalen Reagor, and Patterson works out some things on defense…
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Check out my history of Big 12 championships and offensive evolutions past in my book:
What concerns regarding Alex grinch’s defense reemerged for you down the stretch?
I’m a big believer in yurcich- I think the Texas offense may surprise LSU at the start of the season if they ever get the chance to install the system.
Grinch’s defense is still primarily oriented around pressure which I don’t think is the best way to handle modern spread offenses. On top of that, he isn’t recruiting the kinds of DBs that are going to make his press-quarters scheme work. Unless he’s planning to transition to press-palms or something then grabbing guys that are 6-2 but can’t break 4.55 in the 40 is a losing proposition.