Washington Post columnist Barry Svrluga recently made a fairly bold proclamation, setting forth the argument that the best move for the Washington Redskins with the no. 2 pick of the 2020 draft is NOT to take Ohio State superstar Chase Young.
It’s like the opposite scenario from Kevin Costner’s “Draft day,” where he (spoiler alert) decides NOT to take a highly touted Wisconsin quarterback that kinda looks like Joe Burrow and instead takes Ohio State middle linebacker/pass-rusher (doesn’t really make sense in the movie) Vontae Mack (played by the Black Panther, Chadwick Boseman).
Btw, it’s weird to me that there’s not more online about how it doesn’t make sense that Boseman’s character in the movie is a middle linebacker. They even show him coming off the edge…
In the column linked in the tweet, Svrluga points to PFF data that says that even if Chase Young is the next Kahlil Mack that the picks they could potentially garner by trading down would likely yield more to Washington, a team that is terrible and needs a lot of help. That argument seems to overlook the value of having a guy like Chase Young on a rookie contract but there’s obvious sense in the fact that if you can land multiple quality starters or take multiple shots at securing a star then it’s virtually ALWAYS worth it to trade down.
An argument that Svrluga and others aren’t making that I think is relevant is the actual value of Chase Young to an NFL team.
Check out this nice highlight film of every sack Young made in his career:
That’s 30.5 sacks over three seasons in Columbus and if you watch it you’ll notice a few things that stand out, particularly from the big 2019 campaign.
One is that he piled up sacks against some of their weaker opponents that couldn’t put good tackles across from him. He did have a remarkable seven sacks against Penn State and Wisconsin combined, but the Badgers put Jack Coan four yards deep in the pistol and invited the savaging. The Penn State sacks all came against their wildly overmatched right tackle, Will Fries.
Fries had some of the very worst film against Young of anyone in the entire clip. In round two against Wisconsin and against Michigan and Clemson, Young was shut out. The Buckeyes opened the playoff matchup against Clemson by playing Young as the right end against sophomore and former five-star left tackle Jackson Carman. He wasn’t getting as much going there so they moved him to face Clemson’s right tackle, the 6-3 senior Tremayne Anchrum, who subsequently got some help now and again from the running backs and occasionally tight ends. Nothing doing. Eventually he seemed to tire and Anchrum could stop him without help.
It wasn’t a bad performance by Young but most spread offenses have in mind that they’d like to handle topline pass-rushers either solo with the left tackle or from the right tackle with occasional help. Young couldn’t overcome a standard spread protection gameplan. That certainly raises the question of exactly how dominant he’d be in the NFL if he was lined up across from a great tackle.
The second thing of note from those sacks is that almost all of them come after A) three seconds or so and B) after the quarterback was forced past his first read.
This isn’t a knock on Young, if you have a guy that can get the quarterback this consistently once he’s forced past his first read then you have a game changing player, but it’s the second piece of the puzzle. The first piece is having a backfield that can consistently force the quarterback to hold the ball and read the defense.
As I noted the other day when discussing the long-term decision making by star Texan Drew Sanders, a great flex tight end can clear up the picture for a quarterback and guarantee a lot of quick reads and throws. The value of having a matchup like that on the field tends to overcome the value of having a great edge-rusher, assuming a certain standard of blocking quality on the offensive line.
There should be more question around the league over whether the foundation of a great defense is actually a top edge rusher. Von Miller signed a contract worth $114 million over six years, the biggest deal that Darrelle Revis ever signed was worth $96 million over six years. I’d rather have Revis making sure that the opponent’s top receiver wasn’t open when the quarterback finished his drop then have Von Miller working around the edge. I’d also rather have a top pass-rushing defensive tackle as those guys are harder to mitigate for a protection scheme than defensive ends and outside linebackers. Push the pocket inside and passing games unravel.
Another area of extraordinary need these days is for a safety or linebacker that can match problematic receivers underneath. If you can’t cover up a top slot receiver then you definitely aren’t buying the consistent time needed for a guy like Chase Young to have an impact. The Ohio State Buckeyes had a few first round caliber cornerbacks in their starting lineup between Jeff Okudah and Shaun Wade to pair with some other athletes in the defensive backfield that will get some NFL attention.
How many sacks does Chase Young get in 2019 if not playing teams who’s top four targets are covered by Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, Shaun Wade, and then Pete Werner?
If you’re the Washington Redskins and…
- You hold the no. 2 pick that is nearly universally considered to be the spot for Chase Young.
- Chase Young’s position is currently overvalued by NFL GMs in the formation of winning pass defense.
- You have a dozen serious needs on your roster.
- Young will have extra value as an impact edge-rusher who can be had on a rookie deal…
That all tells the story of potentially vast riches to be commanded in a trade. There’s a case to be made for drafting Young and letting him go when his first contract comes up, but that won’t necessarily help the defense as much as needed and will also draw ire later on from fans. The best case is to follow the Belichik model of roster construction.
Prioritize guys that can cover up the areas of the field where the offense wants to throw the ball and then the pass-rush can sort itself out from there. Of Belichik’s six Super Bowl teams in New England, not a single one of them had a pass-rusher with 10 sacks. What they did have was guys like Ty Law, Darrelle Revis, and Stephen Gilmore paired up with high IQ safeties and nickel/dime sub-packages.
If the Redskins can get multiple first/second round picks from a trade down, then they’ve truly hit the jackpot getting the no. 2 pick in a draft where that’s considered to be Chase Young.
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The spread offense has changed the dynamics of modern football, read about how this came about in my book:
You are totally describing what Patricia/Quinn are trying to do in Detroit. Slay was great but they’ve lacked the “high IQ” guys, especially at safety, to surround him with.
I don’t think they’ll get a chance to complete the project but if they did I think that’s what it would have looked like.
I wonder what they’ll do if both Young and Okudah are there at 3. Young being the universally recognized best prospect in the draft and Okudah the player that better fits their vision.
I bet they’ll have a shot at Okudah, which should be the choice.