Big 12 Twitter-bag, Vol. V

It’s time for the new home of Sports Treatise to host it’s first Big 12-focused Twitter-bag. If it wasn’t obvious, that’d be where I take questions from all my fellow Twitter-bags and try to answer them in this space.

Let’s begin…

@Ian_A_Boyd do you think a 34 can work in the big 12?

— Matt Williamson (@m_williamson07) March 22, 2017

Yes.

Now this is actually a tricky question because at the heart of it is not whether a 3-4 defensive playbook can work in the NFL, we’ve already seen it (or large chunks of it) in all of the 3-3-5 defenses that have been utilized across the league. The real question here is whether a team can survive in the Big 12 playing three down linemen and four linebackers against spread formations.

Now we get into the question of “what’s a linebacker?” Does a guy have to come in at a certain weight to count here? Does he need to be > 6-0, 210? Or > 6-0, 220? Or does he just have to be labelled as a “linebacker” on the depth chart whether he’s built like a traditional linebacker or whether he’s Pat Levels and is 5-11, 190 pounds? Considering that Travin Howard played inside-backer for TCU two years ago at 5-11, 190 these questions are hard to suss out.

I think the main question here is whether a team can play four guys with linebacker skill sets at the same time against the three and four-wide spread offenses in the Big 12. I believe the answer is yes but only under certain conditions.

First of all, the safeties have to be very versatile and good in coverage and in space. A true linebacker playing out over a slot WR (ala Eric Striker in 2014 and 2015) needs to have a safety behind him that can pick a guy up in man coverage, at least on vertical routes. Secondly, that linebacker needs to be really skilled and well versed in how to collision slot WRs and position himself underneath to protect the safeties.

After all that, he’s gotta be physical and disruptive enough to justify his presence out wide over just using a DB that wouldn’t require as many accommodations from the rest of the secondary in coverage. These guys do exist. I think OU had the right idea in playing Eric Striker out wide like this, even though they often struggled to accommodate him there, and while they were a 4-2-5 defense the 2013 and 2013 Big 12-winning Baylor Bears utilized LB types out wide in Sam Holl (6-2, 210)and Collin Brence (6-0, 210).

OSU has also tended to use space-backers in their 4-3 defense such as Shaun Lewis (5-11, 225), Josh Furman (6-2, 202), and Jordan Burton (6-2, 215).

It’s a lot easier if you have a hybrid guy in that field outside LB position but if you have a big guy with athleticism that can do more out there like a Myles Jack, it can work.

Anticipated follow-up: “Can it work for OU with Caleb Kelly?”

Maybe, but I think you’d rather him find a home that’s more consistently close to the line of scrimmage.

@Ian_A_Boyd with Meachem headed for KU, do you have any idea how Sonny will change the TCU O? And what do you expect from Kansas in year 1?

— MK (@yellmk) March 21, 2017

It really looks like TCU is going to emphasize the run game a good deal more with Meacham gone, especially with Kenny Hill and Shawn Robinson as the two most likely QBs for 2017 (though currently they’re talking redshirt for Robinson). From various accounts out there on the inter webs it would seem that a disagreement on the emphasis that should be placed on the run game might have been a source of tension in the TCU offensive meeting room last year. If so, I know which side Cumbie was on and that was the side of being more physical.

As for Kansas, I’m not sure how much they stand to gain from adding Meacham. Is their problem a lack of knowhow within the Air Raid offense or a lack of players? You’d think they might be much improved this year simply because they return everyone worth a lick from last year regardless of bringing Meacham aboard.

@Ian_A_Boyd with OU moving to a 4 man front, where do you think Kelly fits best? Will? Sam in an under front?

— Matt Williamson (@m_williamson07) March 21, 2017

Previously Kelly was considered a possible replacement for Striker, as we alluded to above, but with OU moving towards more four-down, single-gap fronts that could be changing. Oregon played a 4-3 Under with a big, physical, pass-rushing Sam out wide last year and it wasn’t terribly impressive. It can be done, as I mentioned above, but you give up something and it really only makes sense if you’re talking about a guy that thrives in space. If you’re talking about a guy that’s a brilliant pass-rusher who happens to be athletic enough to cover some ground then you might consider teaching him the needed skills to fit somewhere else.

Currently Kelly is 6-3, 229 which sorta puts him in no man’s land. I guess they’ll probably use him as a Sam in the Roy-backer type tradition but we’ll see how that fits.

@Ian_A_Boyd Is Patterson going to have to walk back his smaller quicker anti-Baylor lineups now that the Big12 is getting more run friendly?

— Time Waits for Noone (@MetroidThief) March 22, 2017

Well what would this mean exactly? No longer using corner-safety hybrid Nick Orr at weak safety? That seems unlikely. Moving Travin Howard from linebacker back to safety? Also unlikely.

As I noted a few months ago, many teams in the Big 12 are getting good at incorporating some smashmouth spread elements of the sort Baylor used to force this change in the first place. I think he’ll probably focus on shoring up his DL (remember when we all wondered if their DL play would remain consistently great after Dick Bumpas retired?) so that he can maintain the advantage of having speed on the back end.

Check out how North Dakota St plays run D vs the smashmouth spread (it’s very similar to TCU) and note that getting bigger guys on the field back at safety isn’t really the issue or key to success. It’s all about disciplined and adaptive play up front. Getting your DL and hypothetically undersized LBs in the right spots to funnel the ball to your support players is the bigger key than winning physical contests.

@Ian_A_Boyd What is your predicted order of finish for next year?

— penguinksu (@penguinksu) March 21, 2017

1. Oklahoma
2. Kansas State
3. Oklahoma State
4. Texas
5. TCU
6. West Virginia
7. Iowa State
8. Baylor
9. Texas Tech
10. Kansas

 

@Ian_A_Boyd In addition to how teams finish rank offensive and defensive units

— penguinksu (@penguinksu) March 22, 2017

You’re really putting me to work here, penguin. These are super preliminary, btw. I’ll probably change them after my post-spring evaluation and again in the fall as I meditate on all of the information.

Offenses

1. Oklahoma State
2. Oklahoma
3. Kansas State
4. Texas
5. Texas Tech
6. West Virginia
7. Iowa State
8. TCU
9. Baylor
10. Kansas

I’m giving a nod to the three teams returning their QBs and though OSU has a lot to sort out with all of their TEs and LT Victor Salako gone, they bring back so much skill talent it’s impossible to believe they won’t be explosive. I’ve got a piece coming out for Athlon soon that will explain why OU will be just fine retooling around Baker Mayfield and I’ll hit K-State’s awesome run game in this space soon enough.

Despite all that, Texas could actually end up higher on this list than fourth. They may have the best OL in the league and the skill talent is largely underrated at this point. People may be surprised by Tech’s incoming JUCO QB and anyways…they’re always good on offense.

Someone has to finish last but frankly I’m not sure there will be a bad offense in the league next year. Baylor has a lot of things to figure out but they also have Zach Smith who could end up growing into one of the best QBs in the league and he’s fighting for a spot against accomplished ‘Zona transfer Anu Solomon.

Defenses

1. TCU
2. Kansas State
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Oklahoma State
6. West Virginia
7. Iowa State
8. Baylor
9. Kansas
10. Texas Tech

Meanwhile there may not be a great defense in the Big 12 next year. Texas could surprise, but they have a lot to figure out (always). Oklahoma will be solid but I don’t know if they’ll be great with so many holes. Oklahoma State is never terrible and they are tinkering around a lot with some interesting stuff.

TCU and Kansas State bring back a lot in their respective secondaries and should be the class of the league. The more I look at it the more it seems like the Wildcats are as good a pick as the Sooners to win the Big 12 next year although we’ll have to see what is going on with Bill Snyder’s health.