Oklahoma
Oklahoma had their spring game this last weekend and Allen Kenney of blatant homerism had some interesting notes up on it. Ironically, his thoughts are more objective and less homerish than what you sometimes get from pay sites where people have financial incentive to give you news you like paying for.
I didn’t catch the game but if and when I find it on youtube I’ll probably watch it carefully and offer up a detailed post like last year…and this year I’ll have finally learned my lesson about not assuming that Mike Stoops will stick to even the most fundamental of techniques deployed in that public scrimmage in the following season.
What I have picked up on is that Cody Ford seems to be the new tackle on this team with Bobby Evans sliding over to LT. The Sooner OL looks like it will be very solid from left to right but it also looks kinda short. Evans was listed at 6-4 a year ago and Ford was listed at 6-3 up until they decided he was their second best tackle and then he magically grew an inch and became 6-4. I don’t know how much this matters and they will probably be more of a running team (and they are already fairly run-centric) anyways but it’s something to watch when they play teams with length and speed on the edge.
It sure sounds like Boo Radley will end up starting at nickel next year, which is interesting because he’s only a freshman (although he’s been playing at Bishop Gorman and IMG the last few years which are basically semi-pro teams). That should help them though with their annual struggles to keep their best pass-rushers in alignments where they can rush the passer without being terribly predictable. Seriously, this has been a running thing for like 4 years now ever since they moved Eric Striker to the nickel LB position. It’s been hilarious to observe, I’m kinda sad it might be over.
Oklahoma also cleaned up in recruiting this weekend getting verbals from a bunch of well regarded prospects AND from grad transfer DL Jay Hayes from Notre Dame. Hayes started for ND last year as a strong side end in their Under-ish front and was originally recruited to Notre Dame by….new Oklahoma defensive analyst/amateur vampire hunter Bob Diaco.
It’s going to be very interesting to see what kind of influence Diaco has on the defense this season and whether he gets called in to take over if Mike stumbles out of the gate.
As for Hayes, my man Jamie Uyeyama of Irish Sports Daily seems to think his best fit is as a true 3-4 DE. He’s basically in a contract year here playing to show his worth in the NFL so this move seems to suggest more than anything else that OU will probably stick primarily with the 3-4 again this coming season even if they play a lot of 3-4 nickel. As far as talent goes, Hayes is a pretty sturdy run defender that doesn’t offer that much in terms of pass-rush.
For the spring game I’ll be curious to see what else OU has on the DL and how the secondary looks, particularly at safety.
Kansas State
Lots of flotsam and jetsam floating about regarding the Wildcats’ plans for 2018 and beyond. Let’s start with the new coordinators, early word out of spring has DC Blake Seiler trying to bring a little disguise to the traditionally static K-State defense while OC Andre Coleman is making more significant changes.
TE Dayton Valentine is apparently done with football and although the Wildcats have some back-ups there that have played a lot, word is that Coleman envisions this offense being tweaked to get faster both in terms of personnel and tempo. This strikes me as something other than strategic wisdom.
Look around, Coleman, you ARE still in Kansas and you’re not surrounded by <4.7 athletes but by burly midwesterners who may be able to base block B12 DEs but aren’t going to run by B12 LBs. They also want to play with more tempo…which just sounds like a disaster for a team that has gained a major edge from shortening games and pounding opponents.
We’ll see how much actually changes on offense but in my estimation the best chance for K-State to win the B12 in 2018 is to keep on keeping on and hope that Alex Delton either stays healthy or that Skylar Thompson is ready to be a worthy spot starter in games that Delton misses.
Word trickling out on defense suggests my made-up depth chart which had AJ Parker and Duke Shelley at CB with Sam Sizelove at Mike, Elijah Sullivan at Sam, and Elijah Walker at nickel is pretty close, but nickel is unsettled. That’s becoming a very tricky spot for K-State to man, as I’ve noted multiple times in recent years, largely because it’s basically a CB/S hybrid position. The dude there needs to be able to carry verticals and play like a corner on one snap and then play the edge with some physicality the next.
We’ll see what they come up with. Then there’s always the question of Snyder’s succession. The impression that I get is that he’s going to hang around until they push him out so watch to see if the powers that be in Manhattan look to make a power move next fall/winter if things don’t come together for this team. If the Wildcats win nine games or so? Maybe everything is prolonged further.
Iowa State
One thing that’s tricky to suss out about Iowa State for this coming year is how much of their success late in the year basically consisted of Kyle Kempt throwing the ball at Allen Lazard and then the one big coup of Paul Rhoad’s recruiting career making something happen.
Kyle Kempt is back, as are some promising receivers like the 6-6 Hakeem Butler and speedy Deshaunte Jones who was promising in 2016 and injured in 2017 (ditto RB/WR Kene Nwangwu). But the trump card of “throw it at Lazard” is gone and you get the sense from Matt Campbell’s challenges issued to his OL that the Cyclones know that they need star RB David Montgomery to be their trump card in 2018 in order to continue to build on the program’s success.
It was obvious in 2016 that this coaching staff knew how to get the most out of their roster and you could see Iowa State playing with good fundamentals and tactics on D while taking some good shots on O. In 2017 they started to put some of it together while leading the breakthrough on dime defense in the league.
They’re losing some good players on defense from a year ago but returning enough guys, including some of the more promising talents like LB Marcel Spears, Jr, DE JaQuan Bailey, and NT Ray Lima that it seems likely that they’ll improve if anything in year three.
Beyond their schematic breakthrough, 2017 made clear that Iowa State was building a culture that was going to make more of the talent on campus and truly maximize the roster both in terms of development as individuals and deployment in creative schemes.
In my estimation, the big story for this team’s spring is the OL and TE positions. They’ve got a lot of young Campbell players stepping up into major roles there and if they can start to get his run game going with their inside zone and zone/fold plays going for Montgomery then they’ll be scoring some points next fall and taking advantage of what is a near-lock to be one of the league’s better defenses.
Power rankings as of now?
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Kansas State
- Iowa State
- Oklahoma State
- West Virginia
- TCU
- Baylor
- Texas Tech
- Kansas
I don’t like knocking the Frogs down and may change my mind but they’re losing a lot of important pieces and I don’t think a program built around development is going to chug along with another 9-10 win season with so many young players stepping into major roles. West Virginia has a lot of things that could break negatively for them on defense, but they also have Will Grier and Davis Stills.
Oklahoma State never slips too far although they have a lot on their plates to master right now. Iowa State seems to me like a team that could make another leap and surprise people, Kansas State is due to be good but I have concerns about Snyder’s investment level and some of these offensive changes. Oklahoma is everyone’s favorite and I understand why but I have real doubts that I’ll be checking into with this spring game. Texas is likely to have the best defense in the league and the offense could be both twice as good as last year (though that’s still not amazing) and they could win the league simply by virtue of toughness and depth (didn’t have the latter last year).
Kansas is going to be terrible again, they’re basically already looking for their next head coach. Tech seems to have a lot of hope invested in Jett Duffy not being indicted at some point before the fall. Baylor could breakthrough but they’re probably another year away.
I agree with the thoughts on K-State potentially sacrificing an advantage by increasing tempo. When the other team likely has some degree of athletic advantage, allowing them 10 more opportunities a game to out-athlete you could be a significant error. If done well and in situationally appropriate ways, and with a high degree of execution it could put some unbearable stresses on opposing defenses. Having experienced the other side of that equation with Baylor mercilessly assaulting Dante Barnett in 2012 I know how devastating it could be. If it’s one tool that gets pulled out of the toolbox when there is an advantage to do so (inexperienced player not getting help, already tired defense, etc) it is fine.
On the subject of K-State not having access to a huge supply of speedy athletes in state, while that’s generally true, there are some pretty significant exceptions – on offense, Alex Delton comes immediately to mind from the current roster, as do a few others. But that ignores how much of the wide receiver position group comes from elsewhere at the moment. Whether or not the current roster is truly suited to an increased tempo, K-State has put a lot of effort into getting skill players from Georgia, Texas and Louisiana in particular, and has had some success. Combining the domestically produced offensive line, some of the occasional top tier in-state talent at skills positions, with the other skills players being imports? That’s a pretty viable concept as proven by other programs over the years.
I think you’re maybe overly optimistic about Texas this year. The offense wasn’t remarkable, and the defense suffered a few letdowns over the course of the year. While I think they’re certainly going to be improved between added talent and experience, even a fairly big improvement would still leave them behind OU. While a lot of teams (including OU) will likely take a step back this year, it still doesn’t necessarily catch Texas up far enough, top tier defense or not. But it should be fun to see.
K state struggles to find skill talent now when they only need a few. If fielding more of them is essential to the strategy? That’s not a great idea.
Texas was consistently good on D last year after the Maryland debacle. Consistently great after going base dime. Their move to base dime is potentially huge for the 2018 season. The O was bad last year but relied on a lot of freshmen that weren’t ready and upperclassmen that weren’t good. Their healthier, deeper, and have an identity now.
I wouldn’t say that finding them has been so much of a struggle. Using them to the fullest extent and retaining maybe. But I have a hard time seeing Zuber, Heath, Pringle, and Lockett in the past four years alone representing an outright struggle. And that ignores Burton (no struggles with speed anyway), Sexton, the flashes that Sutton and Harris showed, etc. With a lot of turnover who really knows what will be on the field this year, but there seem to be enough players to be a solid position.
Are they the four and five star guys that litter other rosters? No, obviously not. But at least from my perspective, aside from a good chunk of 2016, the QB play hasn’t exactly been allowing the receiver positions to shine – just based on the flashes of good play there seems to be some potential.
Most of all though, I’m not saying that K-State should be running an offense at Briles tempo as a full time strategy. No way, no how is that a good fit for the program. I fully agree that the slowed down pace has been a net positive. What I am saying though is that as a situational strategy an up-tempo approach for a series or even sequence of plays could be a positive, even if it just forces the other team to burn a timeout or make some adjustments.
Sure, it’s a useful change up you need anyways for 2 minute offense.
I could see K-State figuring it out with WRs finding either enough star athletes like Pringle or local chain movers like Sexton to make it work. But how is K-State at advantage over the rest of the league trying to play that way?
The only way I see that working is if they go more full bore “Gulf Coast O” mixing in more QB run RPOs. Those are nasty to stop and Thompson would probably be more effective on those. They have a few already but adding more could be useful.
I admire your attempt at power rankings. Big XII is gonna be stupid fluid this year. I think it is a safe bet the champ will have 2 league losses. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 8 bowl teams again.
Daily Bullets (April 17) - Big 12 Blog Network
[…] Rudolph will be on ESPN tonight (plus other times if you miss it)….Good thoughts in here with 2018 Big 12 football power rankings….NCAA looking at roping in staff in press box numbers….NFL is looking for late-blooming college […]
Radley’s nickname is Bookie, fwiw.
Boo Radley is a vastly superior nickname. For starters, it’s weird and funny, secondly it doesn’t conjure images of illegal activity.
Just curious, but what possibly makes you think TCU finishes outside of the top 5?
Defense will be improved from last year. Likely a top 5 defensive line in the country (most DL talent GP has ever had to work with). Safeties got bigger and more athletic, corner is about the same plus Julius Lewis back from injury, LB takes a step forward especially with depth and Jawuan Johnson transferring in.
Offense is loaded with talent and speed, especially at WR (Reagor, Turpin, Barber, Manning, Austin, Hunt). Playbook is opened back up now that they have a QB who can get the ball downfield. Up there for best 1-2 punch at RB (Anderson and Sewo) in the Big 12 (I’m aware this could be hindered by OL play). Which leads us to the biggest question of the entire team, OL. The size and talent is there at OL, now it’s about getting the 5 best out there and letting them gel together.
Defense should be able to carry the team over the first few weeks to let the OL get some chemistry. TCU leaves the state of Texas twice this year (WVU and Kansas). Hard not to see them competing for a spot in the B12 championship game. Let me know what you think!
I’ll take the over on WVU.
This is probably going to be the best offense WVU has ever had under Holgo. The team returns two of the league’s best tackles, the best QB, probably 2 of the best 4-5 WRs (Jennings and Sills) and one of the league’s best deep threats (Simms). They are deep and huge at G (average size of the two starters is like 6’6, 335), they are deep and brimming with potential and versatility at RB and they’ve added two skill player transfers (Simmons and Haskins) that figure to make the receiving core deeper than it has ever been.
The defense, even with its question marks, figures to be much better than last year. The word out of the spring is that the defensive line looks better than expected, before the younger Stills even shows up. Safety is loaded with players who have played and started. David Long might be the best returning LB in the league, Tonk played a lot last year and they’ve got a ton of guys competing for the third spot. CB…still probably sucks and that’s a problem but it was a problem last year too.
When you factor in the fact that the league is almost uniformly hitting the reset button at QB this year, I don’t see any reason to expect WVU to perform worse than it did last year.
OU has shown you can win the league without a top 40 S&P+ defense. I’m not saying WVU is going to win the Big 12 but I don’t really see 5 conference teams outscoring them either. I like to think I can be pretty objective about my team, I was not particularly high on the squad last year because of the turnover. But I think it is pretty unlikely that they finish behind some of the teams you have in the top half of the league.
Didn’t WVU’s nose tackle transfer out? That’s a pretty important position in WVU’s defense, isn’t it?
Yeah but they got another one from USC so they might be okay there for 2018 at least.
He did, but reportedly he left because he was losing his job to one of the Stills brothers this spring. Hard to know how much of that is spin, but the coaching staff is generally reliable when they talk publicly about areas of concern vs. areas where they are comfortable.
It’s still thin at the position and it is critical position for the 3-3-5 run defense, but as Ian notes there is a former 5-star USC DT coming in at the position too and WVU is looking for another DL grad transfer. They also have a 300 lb DT true freshman coming in (former wrestler, which I always like to see) although Ian thinks he is destined for OL. It’s not great, I would be much happier if McDougle had stayed, but I don’t think its going to be a gaping hole this year the way it was at times last year.
I’ll be very surprised if this is one of Gibson’s better defenses. But I’ll also be surprised if it isn’t notably better than last year (I’m thinking like S&P 40-55 range). And for WVU to have any serious success this year the offense will have to be a top-10 unit instead of a top 25 one. But I think that is well within the realm of possibility.
I’m probably not crediting the offense enough, the D just makes me really nervous.
You need two things to play well on D, the first is enough depth and quality to guarantee that all 11 guys on the field are at least passable and knowledgeable defenders. Then you need a few guys that can hold up in isolation. One at corner and hopefully a safety that can help a lot on the back end and then on the DL.
WVU may get close to step one but I worry a lot about step 2. And the O has looked solid but they weren’t world beaters a year ago, not good enough to carry as bad a D as they had.
Totally agree with all your points. I think, given the returning talent, that we can expect to see the defense take another step forward this year.
Ezekiel Rose looks like the iso guy on the D-Line (dude is athletic, he returned a kick last year) and started becoming a problem for other teams late in the season last year. Bailey will be the iso corner, and while probably not great, he’s fairly sizeable (6’0) and way better than Mike F’in Daniels. At safety, Kenny Robinson was a really promising TrFR corner (3 picks, 2 for TDs, ~40 tackles) before they moved him to FS for exactly the reason you highlight.
If the injury bug gets the defense in even a couple of spots, season over. But that is always the game WVU plays, it will never have a next guy up defense because they can never recruit that well. The impact talent will have to be on the field all season.
End of an era: A celebration of Mike Stoops’ legacy – Concerning Sports
[…] Lincoln Riley hired Bob Diaco as an analyst though and now Diaco will be up in the booth…werewolf beats vampire. […]