• ianaboyd

      That story has already been debunked. There aren’t piles of dead bodies hidden somewhere keeping Florida from being New York.

      • quigley

        Ok, you started it and continued it.

        I haven’t seen it debunked so show your work. Then we’ll wait until total excess deaths are reported which will be a more complete accounting.

        When thinking about this problem, please remember the following. This disease went from nothing to either the #1 or #2 cause of death in the country over the last two months. That’s looking strictly at deaths directly attributed to Covid-19.

        • ianaboyd

          Sure but it didn’t hit everywhere the same. Not even close.

          A vast chunk of the damage was in NYC or the North east.

          • quigley

            OK, so people dying on the East Coast matter less than people dying other places?
            Do you not live in MI still? Does Detroit not count?
            How about the sanctity of life?

            The reason there was limited spread is that measures were taken to prevent it. I’m not talking about govt measures. Federal govt has done as little as possible to prevent spread, and state govt were slow. The wisdom of the masses started to dominate 10 – 14 days before govt measures and remain active. People started distancing, wearing masks, and working from home before govt instructions across the country.

            Incidentally sports is responsible for at least part of this. The NBA’s decision to stop the season on Mar 11 was correlated with precipitous fall in business activity and travel well before govt intervention.

            If FL is spared, it’s only because the measures taken by the populous IN SPITE of their government’s slow, incomplete, and incompetent response. Desantis claiming credit for better than expect numbers is:
            1 – Ignores the fact that people protected themselves and continue to do so.
            2 – Corrupt because his govt is covering up the actual numbers.
            3 – Oblivious to the fact that it could have been better if he’d given clear guidance and support to it.
            4 – Blind to the possibility that, in America, we could have a gradual spread of the disease because of our disjointed respond.

          • ianaboyd

            I’m not talking about what lives matter, how bad the pandemic has been, none of those were included in my point.

            My point was that Florida’s response was controversial, but it’s working out for them.

  1. quigley

    Recruiting rankings are notoriously poor predictors for elite OL, you know this. Staff turnover and outdated offensive philosophy are more likely to blame for UF’s deterioration on the OL.

    • ianaboyd

      I didn’t say they had faced deterioration, the argument is that they don’t have as many players rated as elite from within their state.

      From there you have to figure out how to get elite athletes on your line. Either by being one of the teams good at identifying the right 3-stars or by recruiting out of state.

      • quigley

        It’s a lot simpler than you’ve made it out to be. They didn’t take numbers and are paying for it.

        From 247sports, OL recruits per year over this decade:

        2010, 2011, 2012: 2
        Yes, 2 OL recruits per year for three straight years.

        2014: 7 (!), 5 were low 3 – stars (greater than 500 in th country)
        2015: 5, 3 were low 3 stars
        They needed bodies and took anyone.

        2016, 2017: 3
        Short on numbers again.

        2018: 4 — reasonable class

        Michigan’s OL recruiting similarly had bust/boom cycles
        2010: 1
        2011: 3
        2012: 4

        2013: 6

        2014: 2
        2015: 3

        Don’t matter where you are if you don’t bring in sufficient numbers.

        • ianaboyd

          I wasn’t commenting on their current OL though, which I think might be fine.

          I wanted to make the point that despite what you might think (certainly what I thought), being a Florida school doesn’t make OL that easy.

          I heard that was the case and then looked up 01 Miami and was surprised by what I found.

          • quigley

            The biggest factor for the Gators is that they didn’t take enough players. Period.
            Over five years in the last decade (2010-12 and 2016-17), they took 12 total. They played catch-up in the interval between those years.

            For you to make the point your trying to make, you’d need to look high school lineman from Florida writ large and see how they do broadly. There are too many alternative hypothesis that you didn’t address to come to the conclusion you’ve settled upon. Here are a few:
            1 – Ranking services don’t rank FL OL well.
            2 – Good high school OL from FL chose to go elsewhere
            3 – Gator coaches had a lot of turnover and didn’t develop OL
            4 – Change in offensive system hurts OL development
            And so forth. Some of these you know are true already.

          • ianaboyd

            1) Seems super unlikely, there’s so much coverage and scouting in Florida by the services and every program in the nation.
            2) I’ve already shown that this does happen.
            3) Maybe.
            3) Seems like they’ve done pretty well.

            But you keep addressing the post like my argument was that Florida is in a hole trying to compete this season because of in-state OL availability. My argument wasn’t what shape this team is in but the fact that it’s not as easy as you’d think for Florida to build elite OL with in-state recruiting. Not like with building an elite secondary or skill group on offense, where it’s almost impossible to recruit Florida remotely effectively and not clean up.

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