I guess technically the various Big 12 teams are about to be gunning for their bowl opponents, at least those teams that are playing in bowl games. Oklahoma has real stakes to their postseason since they are in the playoffs again and Texas probably has some interest in showing well against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
But even those teams are multi-tasking now that everything slows down. Bowl practices are always an important part of the development process for younger players who get extra reps, the whole period includes fast paced recruiting for NSD1 and then fast paced evaluations for NSD2.
Then there’s the grad transfer waiver wire that everyone is increasingly tapping for immediate help. Here’s what everyone is looking at right now:
Kansas
What’s the story with Pooka Williams? The freshman came and lit the world on fire for the Jayhawks despite playing on a bad team and now he’s suspended on suspicion of domestic battery. Yikes. Shades of Tyreek Hill…and Kavontae Turpin…and Dede Westbrook…why do the water bugs seem to disproportionately draw these charges?
I’m sure he’ll be well represented in court but the Jayhawks need to get a good, honest sense of whether they’re going to have their war pony to build around for new OC Chip Lindsey.
Oklahoma State
The OSU bowl practices are going to be the start of the QB battle between Dru Brown and Spencer Sanders for the future of the position. Perhaps they’ll even get some action in the bowl game although I imagine CornDog will be allowed his chance to start.
The big questions for OSU next year center mostly around a defense that sucked against the run this year and now loses some of their main attacking pieces up front. I think everyone assumes that the offense will be great again given the return of RB Chuba Hubbard and WR Tylan Wallace but who mans the helm is obviously really important and something they need to nail down sooner than later to ensure that the offense is clicking if the defense needs more time.
The league will be tough again next year and OSU isn’t guaranteed to finish back amongst the top if they don’t make huge strides.
Texas Tech
I wrote recently that Matt Wells’ offense relies pretty heavily on having a TE. That’s how OC David Yost likes to create a run game and clear up the picture for the QB.
You can generally get a feel for a team’s identity/strategy on offense by what kinds of players they utilize in the inside receiver positions H & Y. Yost likes to have a water bug hybrid at one and then a TE who can run routes but is a good blocker at the other. The latter creates space for the former.
Kingsbury left behind a lot of options at WR and QB and a solid situation at OL as well but the new Red Raider staff needs to find TEs ASAP. They already got a verbal commit from a freshman but I’d expect them to scour the JUCOs and grad transfer waiver wire for 1-2 more.
Kansas State
The lack of RB recruiting from Bill Snyder over the last two years seemed innocent enough when they were stockpiling running QBs that were obviously going to carry the main load anyways. But now Snyder is gone and the new HC has preferred a run-centric approach in which the RBs carry the load and the QB is an auxiliary in the rushing attack.
The most important recruitment for Chris Klieman and his new staff is Alex Barnes, they need to make sure he’s sticking around for his senior year to run behind three returning starters on the OL and returning players at TE and FB. Most of the pieces are there for Klieman to build a power run game but if Barnes isn’t there to be the beneficiary then things could get dire. After Barnes there’s Mike McCoy, a promising player who has had injuries that may end his career and kept him out all year, and then Louisville/KS JUCO Harry Trotter who had to sit this season out and was added out of desperation as a true transfer last year.
They’ve already signed a freshman from South Carolina but they need to add so much more to the RB room and ideally with more transfers to fill out the depth chart across multiple seasons and with talent that is worth featuring.
Baylor
This is the year where we find out how Baylor’s S&C program has been doing the last few years with all of the athletic but lighter athletes that Rhule pulled in 2017 and 2018. Particularly along the OL which has yet to be good and is the cornerstone of a good “bash bro” program of the sort that Baylor has aspired to under the new #RhuleofLaw.
Rhule has slowly been finding some key pieces, like DL James Lynch or LB Clay Johnston, QB Charlie Brewer, etc. But this thing all comes together when they can win the line of scrimmage on offense and they have a collection of DBs that can play on a string together. So these bowl practices and then the subsequent spring session are going to be more about development of the existing roster than lots of additions.
TCU
The assumption with Shawn Robinson moving on is that TCU is now the Justin Rogers team. Personally I think losing Robinson was a big blow to the Frogs and that TCU fans always overreacted to his turnovers and year one struggles.
Dude was a running QB in HS with a big arm that needed time and development as a passer to translate to the Air Raid and a reliable run game to lean on that he was capable of really boosting. The OL wasn’t ready though to replace all of the lost starts though and then he took a shoulder injury that sapped some of his run game potential and exacerbated his passing game woes.
Now the Frogs have to potentially start over AGAIN at QB, unless they roll with Michael Collins. At any rate, they need to figure that out. I’ll throw another one out there though, this team really needs some pass-rush. Ben Banogu is moving on, as is L.J. Collier and Ty Summers, and none of the back-up DEs have done much of anything yet in purple and black.
While most eyes are on Sonny Cumbie’s efforts to get one of his QBs up to speed behind what will probably be a pretty good OL and surrounded by some really legit weapons such as Jalen Reagor, I’d look for Gary Patterson to try and hit up the JUCOs or grad transfer ranks for another Banogu. Unless one of these younger guys is flashing like wild in practice or they have some sort of Jerry Hughes-type position change in mind. I’m not saying Gary Patterson won’t solve for this issue, just noting that his solutions will probably be the big story to watch.
West Virginia
It’s been interesting to see that West Virginia fans are FURIOUS about Will Grier skipping the bowl game. I tend to come down mostly on the fan side of things in the “is this a problem that players are prioritizing their NFL futures over their own teams?” We can talk about how the players should get better compensation for the risks they take balanced with the revenue they bring, that’s great, but if you’re going to make a commitment to a program than honor the commitment.
That said, I don’t care about the bowl games and I don’t blame the guys that want to skip out on bowl games after their teams’ real goals are already over and done. To me that seems a good place to draw the line. Ed Oliver skipping out in the regular season? Lame. Will Grier giving way in the bowl game? Fine, especially now that we have the 4-game redshirt rule.
Anyways, this gives West Virginia a useful head start on the Jack Allison era. West Virginia has a few things going for them next year currently obscured by the “OMG they lose Grier to Sills!” note. For instance, returning some of their best defenders and the coverage guys in the secondary. It’s really just a question of getting Allison up to speed in the new system and finding him weapons and concepts, now they get a head start. Win-win-win.
Iowa State
With Ohio State pulling some interesting moves to lock down Ryan Day and usher out Urban Meyer at the immediate end of a season that began with scandal in one of the most suspicious transitions in college football history…Matt Campbell remains at Iowa State. If it’s true that he’d prefer to hang tight for a top Midwestern job rather than leaving for another opportunity than if I were him I’d absolutely stick around for another chance with pump fake Purdy and this defense while my agent keeps an eye on whether Brian Kelly or Jim Harbaugh ditch town or if James Franklin continues to flounder without Joe Moorhead and now without Trace McSorley.
Anyways, the big question for Iowa State is the decision-making of their two war horses on offense, David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler. Montgomery’s style adds up wear and tear so a favorable grade means he should go, but an unfavorable grade should have him back for a chance to finally run behind some good blocking. Butler…surely he gone.
Interestingly, Iowa State’s 2017 class didn’t include a ton of weapons and 2018 looked similar with a bigger emphasis on smaller speed guys than more dudes like Butler or Allen Lazard. Presumably this will be the first year that Iowa State looks like a “downhill runs and then play-action to speed” sort of team. If both those guys leave we could be looking at a different sort of team in 2019.
Texas
The story here is similar to the one in Ames. Texas needs to wait and see what WRs Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson decide as well as SS Brandon Jones. It’s starting to look as though Texas may go two for three and get back Jones and Humphrey but not Johnson but don’t quote me on that, I’m just gauging off the grades these guys seem to be drawing.
The big one is Humphrey. Texas without Humphrey in 2019 is looking to piece together a new formula on offense while totally rebuilding their defense all in hopes of putting together a Big 12 title effort. Texas WITH Humphrey in 2019 is your Big 12 frontrunner and hoping to piece together a national championship run.
Oklahoma
The story around Norman for a while has been the “could Kyler Murray stick with football?” The way he eviscerated the Big 12 and Oklahoma non-conference slate tells a story of a dude that might try for a dual-sport exercise. Of course trying to play professional baseball and be an NFL QB is a fool’s errand and completely preposterous, but some of the Oklahoma people pushing that story know that having Murray around Oklahoma in 2019 is a gamechanger. It’s all about building a sturdy bridge to Spencer Rattler.
Alabama looms with their pro-style defense that is considerably better than any of the units that Murray has taken apart this year and this will be the true test of Murray’s NFL potential as a signal-caller. How well does he prepare for being a target of Nick Saban and his blue chip defense? How will he hold up against Alabama’s pressure and disguises? If it goes poorly, he’ll probably just go the baseball route. If he tears them apart en route to a national championship maybe he’ll really start thinking carefully about the dual-sport path or even sticking with football if he prefers it over baseball. Smart money is on the guaranteed money though.
There’s also the OL, which I’m guessing will lose the guards (duh, they’re seniors) and then Cody Ford but maybe not Bobby Evans. Ford is getting a ton of draft buzz and probably goes early even if teams just want him to move inside to guard, Evans is a really good college player but I don’t know if he’ll get a high enough grade to draw him out.
But for all that, the big question is how the staff reorganizes this offseason. Obviously the big rumor is that they’re going to clean house on defense and bring in Bama’s Pete Golding after a one-year internship with Saban and now filled with fresh insights on how to defend the Riley offense. There’s also the fact that the NFL will have a ton of vacancies to entice Riley into leaving the college game. All the talk about Murray is probably much less likely than whether or not OU’s staff is completely overhauled.
An offseason in which Oklahoma follows up their playoff run with losing both Kyler Murray and Lincoln Riley while that former oil baron, loudmouthed president is charged with replacing could make for some real theater.
Agree on Baylor.
Baylor is pretty much set at CB now. They’ve turned into some really good players. Their 4th or 5th best guys this year are starting for every Baylor D in the past, I think (except over Xavien Howard). Not a coincidence that the CBs are coached by Fran Brown, the highest paid assistant on staff, who has apparently been turning down some pay raises to stick with Rhule a little while longer.
Safety is not as good as CB but they are still light years better than they have been.
But as you point out, the real question is the OL, where they went from abhorrent to below-avg/bad this year. Rhule got a jump start on next year plugging in true freshman Connor Galvin in at LT mid-year. But they’ve signed about 12 OL over the past two years and for almost all of them, they haven’t seen the field. So it is just a matter of whether they pan out or not…
– Good review for each team
– It’s ridiculous that the career decisions of 22 year olds who want to skip an exhibition game (bowls) are criticized. The “abandoned” teammates of the players who skip bowls aren’t the ones who are complaining. The teammates understand. The noise comes from coaches who covet control and need wins and fans who don’t have insight into the players’ situations.
For OU:
– Murray’s gone regardless.
– I can’t see Riley going unless the administration at OU’s really becoming a problem. Administrations at that school understand the primacy the entire state places on OU football and generally leave it alone. Riley doesn’t seem to mind recruiting and is publicly saying the right things.
– OL’s going to be fine if Bill Bedenbaugh stays. Keeping Evans would be better, but Bedenbaugh is the retention target every year. He’s replaced quality OL every year for five now. (BTW, Evans should go too as it’s unlikely he’ll look better next year when he’s with working next to three new starters).
– Whoever comes in at DC will inherit a defense that returns ten starters and twenty out of 22 on the two deep. The upside to this defense is pretty high as recruiting has been pretty good, there were some players on the bench who need to be playing, and there were some who were out of position.
Who were the defensive guys on the bench that needed to be playing?
– Jordan Parker at DB, either corner or safety, has shown competency in the past. Deserved more of a shot.
– Deshaun White at MLB has much better hips and explosion than Murray. Murray is a liability at this point. He should have at least split time with Murray to give him a blow.
– Any DE. K Mann isn’t good enough that he needs to be on the field 90 snaps a game. It seems he doesn’t play all out at any point because he knows he’s going to be on the field all day. Regardless of him trying to conserve energy, there are many snaps in the second half where he seems happy to get blocked.
I thought Parker got hurt? Murray and Mann weren’t great, I figured that things must be awful behind them. They played some bad guys at times in other spots, after all.
I’m starting to think that McNeil’s biggest concern against Bama may be the run D. I don’t think playing 4-3 and outnumbering the run will do the trick if Bama wants to push it, their run blocking is vastly superior to that of Texas or the rest of the B12.
Daily Bullets (Dec 13) – 2019 Cowboy Offense Assumed Dominant, Living and Dying with the Three Ball - Big 12 Blog Network
[…] Offseason Qs […]
Iowa State looks to have a couple of highly ranked running backs coming in and their usual supply of large wide receivers (plus it looks like a giant, four star receiver in their 2018 class) so our long, national nightmare of having to deal with an actually good Iowa State team will continue even if Butler and Montgomery declare. Also, looking at their recruiting shows that ole Pump Fake was designated as a pro style quarterback, which just goes to show how preposterous the whole DT/pro style designation is on the recruiting sites.
Concerns about WVU on offense seem to be overblown. WVU goes as far as their defense takes them. They had their best year in the big 12 (by record at least) with a pretty mediocre quarterback. If they are able to avoid replacing seemingly their entire defense this year, they could be a pretty good team no matter how their QB situation shapes up.
It seems like you have had good sources on TCU in the past. Is there any possibility that GP is fed up with Cumbie and might try to move on? He’s been there a long time to still not have recruited a viable starting quarterback.
As you mention, Texas Tech looks to be signing their first high school tight end commit in a long time. Interestingly, he was recruited when Kliff was still in charge, so I think he had naturally arrived at the same conclusion as you which is that having versatile flex tight ends is the way to go in the Big 12 now. And you’re right, Tech is going pretty hard after a couple of Juco tight ends, including this guy who is visiting this weekend: https://247sports.com/player/travis-koontz-91368/
I think Iowa State’s run game will be fine. They can improve enough on the OL to make up for losing Montgomery, maybe even gain some ground because their other backs are also solid. Losing Butler is scarier and I don’t know who these other massive WRs are that you’re talking about. Their last two classes were more on the short and fast side of things, but all that means is that Campbell is close to executing his actual vision rather than making the most of what he had, so that’s something.
Like you note, the DT/pro designations are totally worthless. Totally agree on West Virginia as well. If they play well on defense then Holgorsen can get points on the board. I dunno what weapons they will build around next year but I don’t doubt that they have some, waiting their turn.
Eric Nahlin usually knows a lot about what’s going on at TCU but I haven’t asked in a while. Seems like the central question is why Robinson is leaving? Because they were replacing him or because he’s mad about how the season went and his relationship with the coaches?
Koontz looks like the type they’ll want to plug in quickly to match their vision. The Michigan State and Pitt offers say it all. Tech was never chasing the same guy as those teams in the past.
These guys look like they might fit the Butler mold with a couple of off seasons in the weight room: https://247sports.com/Player/Joseph-Scates-89162/high-school-171034/
https://247sports.com/Player/Sean-Shaw-Jr-87154/high-school-159898/
Who’s the second guy?
I thought the reaction of WVU fans was kind of split on Grier, but maybe that’s just the writers and not the fanbase itself. I’ve seen some anger but plenty of folks recognize he’s gotta do right by his family (hey, did you know he has a daughter? So glad that storyline is over).
I’m inclined to agree with your general points on WVU. The offense has had a pretty high floor since 2013. The run game comes back and McKoy finished the season on fire. They got 4-6 WRs/TEs that they redshirted this year, I suspect they find a couple kids ready to contribute.
The returning experience in the secondary is reminiscent of Gibson’s best defenses, so there’s reason to be optimistic on that side of the ball. Just “flipped” a JuCo corner from LSU to help out too.
8 wins next year seems entirely manageable again. With some breaks maybe it turns into something more.
I am really pumped to see Kyler go against Bama.
I think I’m high on WVU for next year. Long and Stewart are back, as is Campbell or anyone who can be better. The Stills bro’s are still around and maybe most important is Robinson and the CBs. It’s really nice having experience back there.
I dunno on Kyler vs Bama. I’m not sure if this is gonna be like Bama 55-50 or Bama 55-20. I think I’m leaning toward the latter.
OU’s OL is likely too good for the Sooners to be held to 20. OU played three “good” defenses in 2018.Number of scoring drives / total drives (non-end of half possessions):
UT x 2 (7/12 and 7/10), Iowa St (7/10), TCU (8/11).
That’s scores on 29/43 = 67% for 44 pts/game.
Alabama’s defense is better than those three, but the 2017 Georgia defense is, I think, a reasonable comparison for 2018 Alabama on defense. OU went 6/12 in regulation in the 2017 Rose Bowl. Based on these data, I anticipate OU get to about 40.
There are a few scenarios for a Sooner victory (you’ll notice that none of these paths involve significant improvement of the OU defense):
– Tua’s really hurt, and still plays. Like in the SEC-CG, he’s ineffective. This allows OU to get up 2 – 3 scores, the Tide abandon the running game, and OU hangs on in the fourth quarter.
– OU’s OL doesn’t allow the Tide DL to dominate like they’ve done all year. This exposes the Bama DB’s. The Tide blitz, and Murray punishes them passing and running the ball.
– Turnovers. Bunch of people in Alabama voted for Roy Moore so we know that they aren’t immune from error.
– FEVER DREAM: We know Riley has at least experimented with a two QB system (Ohio St 2017, Texas 2018).
Austin Kendall is an underrated athlete and may be equivalent to Ehlinger as a QB (without the game reps). With Kendall, Murray, and a RB in the same backfield, the Sooners unveil a new version of the QUAD option:
(1) direct snap to Kendall
(2) traditional RB run
(3) traditional QB pass OR run play with Kendall
(4) lateral pass to Murray as QB1 is breaking to the edge. Murray then still has QB run – pass option with OU’s WR single covered because the safety is required to contain Murray running the ball.
The Sooners befuddle the Tide with Kendall throwing for 300 yds and Murray throwing for 200 yds and running for another 150. Book it.
You lost me at “Kendall Austin is as good as Sam Ehlinger” on that last section.
I’ve got tons and tons of thoughts on this game I’ll try to publish somewhere. Perhaps on this very blog.
I think Bama is another animal beyond Texas or TCU this year, they can put like 4 DL on the field who are all close to being as good as the best DL for either TCU or Texas. I think they can stuff OU’s 3-play run game from nickel, but I don’t know if they can do it from dime or if they can cover Kyler and the pass game from nickel.
Totally agree that if Alabama doesn’t run the ball at least 30x that we should all lambast Saban and his staff. They were running H counter on Georgia for like 7 a pop and should have run that and OZ many more times. Dawgs couldn’t stop it. They had whatever they wanted in that game and were held under 50 because of drops and Tua mistakes.
– OU’s best defensive backfield this year would’ve been: Motley, Norwood at CB, Brown at NB, Parker at deep safety, and Barnes at run support safety.
This group could at least cover and had some experience. Parker had shown that he was responsibility sound, had speed, and could tackle. He did get hurt midway through the season.
– In the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs OU, Alabama ran 25 times and dropped back to pass forty times (McCarron scrambled ten times). If they’d inverted their run/pass ratio, they win.
This time, the Tide SHOULD have six drives where they cover > 60 yards for TDs in 5 – 8 plays with only one or two passes (Georgia had four last year). If Alabama’s backs have less than thirty carries, regardless of score actually, they ENTIRE offensive staff should be canned (Georgia’s backs had 29 last year).
I like some of those DBs okay. They need to hire a new DB coach to make the most of getting those guys back. Brown and Norwood (the tre’s) are football players that could really be good with some help. It’s obvious how much McNeil has taught them in limited time, they need more McNeils on that staff.